Simple Charger Circuit For6v 4ah

Documentary screening: Teebra. Women's Voices IV


Next Monday the 14 projects in the documentary Teebra Space at 20:00.
In order to show solidarity with the Saharawi conflict with Haidar activist, believe that is a good way to meet and discuss around the reality of the Sahara West and the Saharawi people.



Teebra . Women's Voices Saharawi women directors Collective
Seville. Spain,
2007. 69 min. voe and voárabe.
This documentary comes from the Provincial Association of Friendship
Seville with the Saharawi people. Consists of 10 short pieces that show women
Saharan very diverse. Each piece is made by a director
Andalusian brings its own perspective on
a Saharawi woman, either of the camps in the occupied territories
or living in Spain or other European countries.

Price Of Arish Hair Plus Premium

The low price of the VIX volatility index of S & P 500 is showing us calm and confidence in the markets. Until when? Nobody knows, but it seems likely that sooner or later return to see levels of fear, given the heights reached by the market without a consistent economic recovery back.




In these circumstances, a valid strategy to attempt to exploit the fear that future increases would buy volatility. You can buy volatility on the S & P 500 by buying options, futures on the VIX, or through ETFs.

For the investor not very active, which is not common trader or are familiar with the options and futures, the easiest way to buy volatility would be through an ETF. It saves so the cumbersome rollover of futures positions in the medium term.

There are two exchange-traded funds from Barclays to buy volatility: VXX and VXZ. The first warning that I do is that it is not actually traded funds (ETFs), but notes companies (TNCs). Most investors are not fixed in that detail, and has its importance. An ETF is an ETF with a separate legal entity, and the bankruptcy of the issuer or manager does not mean the bankruptcy of the fund. In contrast, TNCs are notes an issuer, and its value depends directly on the creditworthiness of the issuer. To see if it will be to buy a product to bet on fear, and fear at the end we will pass us.

Both products have a fee of less than 1%. The difference is that VXX VIX futures portfolio has one and two months while VXZ portfolio consists of four futures, five, six and seven months of expiration. I should also mention that VXX is much more liquid than VXZ.

The following graph we see the composition of the portfolios and VXZ VXX, respectively.








"They replicate these TNCs VIX behavior? No. They replicate the behavior of the VIX futures are held, which is not exactly the same. As happened to the oil ETFs on whether the future following maturities are more expensive than the closest maturity, when the TNC has to make the rollover will lose money, since you'll pay more dearly for the future following expiration regarding the price at which the future must sell immediately due. This also would suffer harm us if we have a position in futures on VIX and we want to maintain the medium term. Subsequent deadlines are simply more expensive because the market believes as we do, the VIX is rising, and betting on later periods and are higher. The same thing happened when oil traded at $ 40 and some months ahead futures trading at much higher prices, anticipating higher prices.

the chart below 6 months of the VIX with two TNCs. It clearly appreciate the price distortion caused by the different maturities of the futures portfolio.





see how the behavior of TNCs VXX has been much worse than the VIX, which itself has been bad. It has been because in each maturity, VXX manager had to pay more for the future of the next month as the market bet on rising volatility, although this has not happened so far.

Instead VXZ, the futures portfolio have different maturities and all of them more distant, not only did not suffer this effect, but has performed better than the VIX, because the more distant maturities VIX futures have down unless the VIX itself.

If increased fear what we expect in the short term, the effect of the rollover will not affect us and we will be able to benefit fully from the movement of the VIX. In this case it would VXX the TNC to use.

Example Commercial Offer

Saharawi Poetry Editing Power Front

What Does Star On Palm Indicate

What do you do / do with your money?


Ethical and Solidarity Financing Options

Thursday 19 November 20:00

The Nov. 19 will have the opportunity to chat and get the two draft ethical financial services and caring that are operating in Andalusia, Coop57 and reliable.
Speakers:

Lucia del Moral, intarsia SCA member and the Council of Section 57-Andalusia Coop

Girl Lucia, Fiare Manager - South to Andalusia and Extremadura.

Modera :

Luis Ocaña, Dreamcatcher miembreo of SCA and Coop57 Section Council.



"For too long, on the threshold of rapid change and often baffling turn of the century, under the collapse of an economic model able to resolve the great problems of humanity and the drift radically individualistic society today, have us believe that there was nothing to do , that the economy was only for the experts and that the story had clinched. That we should lower the shade and not open anymore, which is still pretending that educate the world on top of privatizing profits and socializing losses on the basis of generating more inequality and injustice.

Therefore, in retrospect and in a world increasingly insane, is it appropriate to recover the universal legacy of the long civil rights struggle of the African American community in the U.S.. Background, reflection and hope that it condenses into concrete synthesis the problem never lies in what might do a minority, particularly cruel, particularly powerful, but what we do or fail to do most, with our demand or our indolence. Switching off the lights or lighting matches. Raising his voice or silence. Acting or heads down. "

Coop 57, more info at : http://www.coop57.coop

" economic activity is not neutral. Does not develop through automatic, involuntary or unintentional. Any business decision is, ultimately, an ethical decision, taken from a particular framework of beliefs and the consequences of favor some and discriminate against others.

In our environment, more and more people and organizations are becoming aware of this reality and try to make decisions about the fate of their savings, their applications credit or investment responsibility, based on reliable and sufficient.

and questions arise such as:

• Does the current banking system our demands as savers, consumers and investors?
• Do you find social organizations and their users answer in the traditional financial institutions?
• Where and from what criteria invest our money financial institutions?
• "financial institutions respond to the demands of our societies and especially from the most disadvantaged?
• Is there an alternative model banking that puts such demands on the heart of its mission, vision and values?

The attempt to give satisfactory answers to these questions is in the beginning and basis of the draft Ethical Banking Fiare "

Fiare Project more info at: http://www . proyectofiar

International Colour Chart]

volatility using ETFs Bajan "bags to raise rates?

people are talking a lot in the economic theme means that the current surge in the stock ceases at the time of starting to raise rates, interpreted that higher rates are a negative for stocks. Let's check what has been happening historically in the bags when after a rate cut cycle, returning again increases.

Fed rates we can see here , or in graphic form here. In this last link is also possible to download data in spreadsheet form.





In the top chart we see the level of Fed rate since 1954. The gray areas indicate periods of recession. In

August 1958 began a cycle of rate rises. It was at that time the Dow Jones by 500 points. A year later the Dow was nearly 700 points, bringing the beginning of a rate hike cycle is not meant falling stock. In 1963

begin another cycle of rate rises through 1970, with a stop along the way that accounted for the slight decreases in rates in 1967. It is difficult to determine exactly when rates started rising since the first three years of the 60 types ranging from 1-3% to start a very mild increase beyond those levels since August 1963. Upon initiation of rate hikes was the DJ on 700 points and held up consistently until mid-1965, taking a breather in the 900 points to go up and reach 1000 points in 1966. Nor was this time lows on the stock after the start of the rate hike cycle.

The next important cycle of rate increases began in March 1972. The rates come to exceed 13% July 1, 1974. There was then a bearish reaction immediate rate hike, but after 1973 all falls happen until late 1974, the Dow Jones falling more than 40% in full rate hike. Here he had to do much or all of the 1973 oil crisis , and its inflationary effects. We saw that the bags do not do too well when inflation rises.

begin in April 1977 a new cycle of rate hikes. The bags themselves down then, but not with rupture of a previous upward trend, but a continuation of the fall started a few months ago.

In March 1988 we see the beginning of another cycle of rising interest rates, short-lived. Again no stock reacted to the floor.

In 1994 we can identify the beginning of another cycle of rising interest rates while the stock continued to rise for years continuously to reach high for the year 2000, with the maximum interest rate hikes cycle.

The last cycle of increases that we observed was the one that began in 2004, and in this case resulted in rising stock then, and not falling.

I mean with all this that the stock will continue to rise after the rate hikes? No, not at all. The bags were already expensive in terms of price-earnings before beginning the mother of all rebounds, which can hardly be far cheaper. A significant correction could come at any moment, and if it coincided with a rise in interest rates, is this the explanation would be found to justify the fall. A rise in the stock brought about by injections of money groups, and an output of the recession caused by government assistance for the purchase of cars and houses can not be too reliable.


In general, rates to rise is not always detrimental to the stock question of moderate increases to keep inflation at desired levels. It is even a good thing, as we indicated that the economy is improving and that improvement rate increases made necessary to keep inflation in check.

moment we might find in a possible future rise in interest rates rather due to speculation fostered by the free money is artificially raising the price of raw materials and actions. Recovery is discounted "V" is not going to get, since it is merely an economic upturn due to the numerous government incentives. Recovery will cease once the stimuli are withdrawn. It is likely that it is leading to speculation that rising raw materials and the bags, take them down once it is clear the weakness of the recovery.

Indian Channel Freeqnency

Chat - Discussion Current Situation in Palestine Honduras


Wednesday October 28 19:30

Chat - Debate on the current status of the coup in Honduras in the same intervene Silvia Figueroa and Francisco Pérez Ayala Silvia Ayala
Honduran Representative for the Democratic Unification Party, member of the National Front Against the Coup. Fran Pérez
is the Head of Solidarity and Awareness of OSPAAAL (Organisation for Solidarity with Africa, Asia and Latin America).
organizes the Communist Party of Cordoba and Al Borde OSPAAAL

Nokia 7610 Supernova Firmwar

The 23, 24 and October 25 at the Circle John XXIII was going to do a conference on the Palestinian reality. In those days wandering the bookstore Social and Cultural Space Al Borde is presemnte with a variety of titles to the Palestinian environment. The program of the conference is:

Friday, October 23
20:30: Presentation Photographic Exhibition, by Albert Ferrer. Social photographer. 21:30

Poetics against barbarism

Saturday October 24 12:00

Chat-Debate on the situation Current in Palestine, by Madji Shella, a specialist in the rights of displaced and taken refuge and Balata, Nablus. 22:00

Zenith and music. 18:00

Film Forum, on the bombing of Gaza for Christmas, by author Alberto Arce, a reporter present at the bombing and awarded the Mediterranean Prize for Journalism Anna Lingh.

Car Repairs Letter Of Agreement

III Conference on Global Week of Action Against Debt and Institutions International Financial


In the framework of the Global Week of Action against Debt and International Financial Institutions, held in Cordoba is a series of activities organized by the Citizens' Network Who Owes Who.
activities will develop the following:

Wednesday 14: internal table on mainstreaming collective debt.
19H. Classroom 2 of the House David Luque Citizen

Thursday 15: Lecture and discussion : Audit and External Debt: The Case of Ecuador. By Javier Gallego (QDQ Madrid). 19H. Social and Cultural Space Brink

Saturday 17: Action Street. Scores a goal on the debt. At 12h. Outside the headquarters of Santander Bank in Grand Boulevard Capitan. We will
Dresses / Footballers as a goal and a ball in front of Banco Santander, inviting people to target a goal that debt.

For more information on all actions and activities to be conducted during the week of 12 to 18 October visit: www.quiendebeaquien.org

What Is Average Pens Girth?

PRESENTATION OF ROMANCE OF CRAZY TALK


Next Wednesday October 7 Cordoba presented in the book "Romance of doggerel Crazy" by Francisco Algora, published by Dreamcatcher.
For the same will have Francisco Algora, author of the book.
will be at 20 am in the Social and Cultural Area Al Borde. Romance

crazy, doggerel poems is not usual for the times. Neither in form nor content, dedicated to the fundamentals of life and therefore forgotten. Romances that you dare to know is more of a challenge to the times we live in these days and is a proclamation against ingominia and inhumanity. As current as life itself.

About the author: Francisco Javier Jiménez Algora
was born on December 7, 1948 at the Astronomical Observatory of Madrid, where his father worked as a doorman. At thirteen he left school and enter buttons on a film distributor, thanks to the vocation that aroused comic JA Bardem. Plays several offices to pay for their studies. Enter in the TEM is formed with William Layton, Narros ... He debuted with Carlos Lemos. In 1968 he joined the Goliards and three years later in the TEI.
On stage he has worked under the orders of Facio, Layton, Plaza, Narro, Jose Luis Alonso and Luis Pascual, among others. In 1971, overlooks the screens along with Miguel Picazo in TVE Yde of Jose Maria Forqué in film. He has participated in fifty dramatic television, and in some sixty films to date, and numerous shorts. And has worked with renowned directors of Gutierrez Aragon, Berlanga, Bardem, Fernan Gomez, Leon de Aranoa and Jose Luis Garci.

Simple Cake In Kenstar Microwave

doggerel - CURRENT CONFLICT DEBATE HONDURAN


The next day Thursday October 1 at 20 hours will place in a Chat Area Al Borde - debate on the current situation in Honduras after more than three months since he carried out the coup in the Central American country. We will have
Betty Matamoros, a member of the National Front against Honduras Coup found in Europe, explaining the situation and seek support and solidarity with the Honduran people.

More information and news about Honduras and the people's resistance against the coup in:
http://contraelgolpedeestadohn.blogspot.com/

Foggy Yellow, Smelly Pee

presentations begin Brink!


The next day Monday September 28 at 19:30 will be presented book "Memory and Movement Citizens Neighborhood" Waterfall Publishers.
Speakers:
- Alejandro Ruiz Carbonell , neighborhood activist movement.
- Nacho Murgui president of the Regional Federation of Neighbourhood Associations of Madrid (FRAVM) and one of the authors.

The history of the neighborhood movement summarizes the construction of citizenship in Spain during the last forty years. Emerged in the heat of the struggle for living conditions dignity and to overcome the repression by the Franco regime, neighborhood associations quickly acquired a profile remarkably democratic and participatory social success, especially in big cities like Madrid and Barcelona.
His contribution as "citizenship schools" has been, however, shunned the official accounts of the transition. This book brings together studies on a story that is largely inseparable from the memory of the activists and leaders of associations, participants in a civic group of experiences that still claim their place in the collective imagination of democracy. The neighborhood movement was, above all, a race to the bottom up become one of the key agents of urban transformation. Their struggle is notable for its unique combination of organizational autonomy and bargaining power. Today, the neighborhood movement functions as a kind of movement of movements, a vertex on which oscillate issues affecting the social dimension of citizenship, health, environment, education, housing and employment . Its raison d'être remains the single claim to identify the citizenship participation beyond voting.

This book involves the following authors: Manuel Castells, Marcello Caprarella, Fanny Hernandez Brotons, Pamela Radcliff, Elisabeth Lorenzi, Pablo Sánchez León, Félix López Rey, Francisca Sauquillo, Victor Renes, María del Prado de la Mata, María Roces, Vicente Pérez Quintana, Tomás Rodríguez Villasante, Andrés Walliser, Teresa Bonilla, Jaime Baquero, Carmen San José, Julio Alguacil Gómez, Concepción Denche Morón, Manuel Basagoiti, Paloma Bru, Jordi Borja and Nacho Murgui.

What To Write In An Engagement Card?

Baltic Dry Index, China

try at the entrance "the crash of 1929" how during bearish trends are possible rebounds to more than 50%. Now we are at that point, even more in some indices such as the English Ibex. From those minimum daily we see how loans are returned actions of speculators who chose to bear in minimum position. The rise have been caught with the wrong foot and have to repurchase the shares to curb losses. Closing of short positions that have fed all the way up, but right now we have several days worrying in this regard. It was common a few days ago the return of tens of millions of titles borrowed from Santander almost daily.

In "growth," sustainable? " commented that the materials would be a clear buying opportunity came after economic recovery. We see that raw materials are already dawning, but is reliable recovery economic markets are discounting?. I still think that the authorities have chosen to extinguish the fire using gasoline. Faced with a problem of excessive indebtedness has been chosen as an escape route buried inside a mountain of debt even higher. Never a healthy economic recovery can begin with such levels of indebtedness. We can see a glimmer of recovery, but will be limited and not sustainable. To start a new cycle of consistent growth is a prerequisite deleveraging. Not only is reducing the debt, but because of government intervention, the risk has been transferred from private to public, with the danger that entails. In short: recovery will not be consistent and of smaller proportions and duration of what is currently discounted markets.

The raw materials are already rising accompanying the markets. If the economic recovery is not being so, why raise both the raw materials?, Is not synonymous with the rise in price of an increase in demand?.

it happens that almost all raw materials have corresponding futures markets, initially created to facilitate hedging strategies of the parties involved in business related to a given raw material or commodity. No clutch, today and every day, the Most of the volume transaction is speculative.

The Baltic Dry Index is an index that evaluates the cost of sea transportation of dry cargo. This indicates that no future. It stands to reason that if economic activity is improving in a rush, as we are saying the stock and commodity markets, this index must be accompanied with rises.

see the chart below of the BDI with the price of oil.





see how effectively it did at first, but in recent days, the BDI is showing us that optimism is overdone, and that recovery is not bad. Would this be a warning, because it is not speculative index that shows the reality of the market.

Next we see the same graph the Baltic Dry Index, this time with the S & P 500.





We see in this graph how the BDI rose from January to March while the stock continued to fall, showing a possible sign of recovery showed no bags. As in the previous chart, the recent fall in the BDI as the indexes reached new highs, seems to give a warning overly optimistic about living markets.


Finally, we see another striking fact: Western stock markets to new highs continue aupándose while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong since mid-August brings with sharp falls. What we see in the chart below, represented the S & P 500 in fuchsia, and the Hang Seng in black. Another warning sign that should not be overlooked.

Let

Difference Between Pip Tobaco And Rolling

Hitting the trend and lose

back in time. Let us place ourselves in the middle of 2007, the year of excess credit even with the bags on top.

We are a seasoned speculator, of those who see them coming, and we sense that the stock will fall.

The S & P 500 over 1,500 points. We are convinced that it will fall and we want to make money doing it.

our operations is long term, so we decided to dispense with the future and cumbersome maturities. ETFs are a hot commodity, and seek our ETF bearish on the S & P 500.

But heck, we are very confident that it will fall, and prefer to earn double what the index lower. It would be foolish to settle for less. We chose

ETF ProShares UltraShort S & P 500 . The leveraged ETF is down and, in particular vary daily vary double what the S & P 500, and counterclockwise.

The perfect product for our plan: each day the index down 5%, 10% we will win!. We're going to cover! .


Under these lines, the graph of S & P 500 since that time (click to enlarge)




entered on May 30, 2007 at the opening of the market. The index is at 1,514 points. ETF bought our $ 52.50.

Today we have the index around 978 points , below 35% then!, we have covered!, but we are also leveraged and earn twice what low rate!

We looked at the price of the ETF on today and found that is only $ 48!

How is it possible? (Read the curious behavior of the ETF )

After successful the mainstream and have lowered the benchmark index by 35%, not only have we not won, but we have lost over 8%!


Chart ETF leveraged bearish on the S & P 500 (Click to enlarge)




has obviously been neglected the effect of exchange rates, which in this case would have benefited from investor euros. This ETF has been chosen by the availability of contribution history for years and for being one of the most popular ETF leveraged bearish on rates. Obviously also selling a few months ago would have brought important benefits. But the important thing is that we are aware of the enormous importance of choosing the right financial product, wrong choice can be completed in a very bad deal even with the correct initial strategy. The same operation through future would very profitable.

Shipping Containers Blueprint

How to invest when inflation rises?

In the current recessionary environment can not be considered that there is a risk of inflation, but it is clear that if we were somewhat frightened by the graphs of the monetary base increases, the monetization of debt by former Federal Reserve, and more recently by the European Central Bank, are potentially very inflationary in the medium term.

Governments through the Central Banks seek to avoid deflation minoraría the price of assets and would be major problems for banks and heavily indebted companies. The problem is that this avoids the correction of excessive indebtedness, and this is necessary from a point from which we can take a sustained recovery from a more logical levels of debt. Trying to hold prices

asset-based credit bubble to create new money may seem like a short term solution, but merely postpone the problem. I still think that the best solution would be to destroy debt based on massive bankruptcies, however hard it may seem, rather than sustaining life support a mountain of debt that is more than evident that it has reached a level far above the maximum debt permissible sound with a minimum of sense.





Why there is no inflation risk today? Because the recession is responsible for this: the rising unemployment, an uncertain future, the end of the open bar credit ... hard to see inflation in this scenario.

If we look at the banking multiplier M1 which facilitates the Federal Reserve, we see why the increase in the monetary base is not causing inflation in the U.S..





However, the situation is far from what we saw in "Deflation or hyperinflation?, What's next? .

The TIPS spread does indicate inflation today, unlike then, but still low. We see in the chart below the yield on 10-year bonds by the bond yield protected against inflation for the same period. The difference between the two returns is inflation that the market discounts at the present time for the next ten years. However, this spread is subject to market failures as anyone else, and it is not no crystal ball vision, but simply what the market tells us today.






When will inflation? Hand in hand recovery. With recovery recovery I mean really, this is not the green shoots that will come to nothing.

obvious investment against rising inflation would be just inflation-protected bonds. TIPS apart from Americans, many European countries offer inflation-linked bonds. The English Treasury does not offer, but we have mutual funds that invest in bonds linked to inflation. They update their nominal bonds and coupon on the basis of higher inflation, or rather, the price index. Precisely in this lies their main weakness: the price index of a country may be more manipulated down the more prices rise, so the hypothetical hedge against rising prices, it is actually against the price index cooked by the government in power to serve their interests. In Spain we all remember the inclusion of plastic surgery in the CPI calculation, or handling of the low prices including rebates, never before considered. In the U.S. go even further and consider whether to raise the low pork and chicken, the consumer will buy chicken (and this is reflected in its calculation). If a $ 500 television is costing $ 500 next year, but with better caracterísitcas techniques these improvements are measured as a reduction of its price in order to calculate. However, the consumer will pay $ 500 and not less.

ordinary bonds fall in price when rates rise and rise when rates fall. This is because if the new bond offers a higher interest, it is logical that the old bond, which pays less interest, lower price. As usual if inflation rises, rates also, our protection against inflation is partially offset by the falling price of regular bonds because higher interest rates coupled with this inflation. In short, neither are these bonds no wonder.


sure you are thinking of the bag as a clear alternative in case of rising inflation. It seems obvious that in case of rising prices, stock prices should rise.

Consider the following chart (click to enlarge):





inflation we see in red and green S & P 500. Shaded boxes represent periods of sharply rising inflation. As we are not exactly good for the stock market periods.

If inflation is not good for bag, will the decline in inflation good for the stock market?. Glancing at the same graph we see that there has to be. In general it does better than when inflation rises, but considering that the whole graph of the S & P 500 is up in itself, does not mean much. We are left with the bag does not usually do especially well when inflation rises.

Another thing would be to hyperinflation.




Eye I do not mean high inflation . Many of those who bore us now warning of an increased danger of hyperinflation which point the insurance so when inflation rises. High inflation or hyperinflation is not much less. We see in the chart above how historically inflation has not exceeded 20% in USA. 20% is high inflation but not hyperinflation. hyperinflation in Zimbabwe is , where they reached the ticket issuing 100 billion Zimbabwean dollars.





highly unlikely I see hyperinflation in the U.S. and in Europe discard. Germany is still too recent hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic , which resulted in the loss of savings of all previous generations of Germans. Germany will push the ECB to raise rates when inflation begins to freak out.

improbabilísimo In case of hyperinflation, it would good stock market investment, and better the more leveraged . With hyperinflation everything goes up, and if we make sure that even We leverage what goes up less than inflation for the same cover us through the multiplier effect. The hard part is knowing the meaning of the bag, and hyperinflation is assured sense, then we would leverage in a senseless way ahead. Companies would do better in these circumstances would be precisely the worst they do today: the most indebted. In the overnight would be worthless debt.

As this assumption is highly unlikely, we focus on inflation. In the case of sharp rise in inflation (which is not yet the case today), most suitable investment are the raw materials and commodities . We could buy them individually through future (with the disadvantage of being aware of the rollover) or better ETF, or through an ETF that replicates the behavior of the CRB commodity index to diversify with a single investment. That would be my bet on the course.

Card Readerrb539 Free Installation Drive

Buy stocks that end! Gold never goes

Ibex 9,030 pts. Or what is, almost 35% over the minimum of 6,700 pts we saw in March. Again the same story that "the worst is over" and blah blah blah. A kind of deja vu over January, when we had to Ibex in 9800 after hitting 7800 pts, up 25% from lows. Then he came to fall by 32% to above 6,700 pts. At such times it is re-read the entry the crash of 29 (written precisely in the previous peak) to keep things in perspective.


Why such optimism?

On the one hand, it is logical that in a downtrend so abrupt rebounds occur equally violent. Otherwise we would have all the indices to zero. Rebounds can be exploited in the trading day, but in no have so harnessed to the composition of our equity portfolio long term because the main trend remains bearish. I commented about this in a great blogger entry Bourning Markets that would have a significant rebound imminently. I commented on 7 March and a minimum of 6,700 pts Ibex saw him the next day with the market, on 9 March. All this euphoria

market has been driven mainly because of the comments of mark to market, which continues to be a bit absurd. This financial system is becoming increasingly creative accounting of and less than prudent accounting standards. On I highly recommend reading this entry of S. McCoy: Banesto or how to make up the accounts with the approval of the Bank of Spain . Honestly, this make us the lonely cheating is pretty scary.

regard to creative accounting, one that seems to be where each passing day more banks are based both one and the other side of the pond, I recommend watching the documentary: Enron, the guys who ripped off America.

already commented that the biggest U.S. banks are celebrating that they have finally returned to profit (or close to it.) We then see a graph of some ratios of Citibank, because most I look at it I do not see any sign of improvement. The graph is
loss ratios in mortgage loans and credit cards, along with the unemployment rate (click to enlarge):




In the English case, if we recent data we provides the Bank of Spain and we look at the column of dubious, we go a cold sweat by the body (click to enlarge):



then seen on a graph absolute delinquency, published in bubble . info for forero donjuli2002 (click to enlarge):






If the evidence we seek to find something like a global financial system stabilization is the number of bank failures in the U.S., the data are not exactly encouraging: in all of 2008 broke 25 banks in the U.S., while during only four months of 2009 we have broken 24 banks! U.S..

is also talking a lot about the stress test to which they are submitting to U.S. banks, whose results will be published in early May. I am optimistic about the results of these tests, and it is because we firmly believe in the solvency of U.S. banks, but rather because it says that the worst scenario envisaged in the test is even optimistic about the trajectory of decline which is indicating the real economy. In short, not really serve to assess the behavior of banks in the worst case scenario, because in all likelihood the worst case referred to is better than the real situation that we seem headed.

Other data that are being discounted by the market as are the Economic Cycle Institute (ECRI). One thing that I think is very valuable and reliable, but whose current value I think is very far from indicating improvement. Just the economy back to a slower rate than earlier this year. The latest data has been -19.7, compared to levels between -20 and -30 in recent months. A figure similar to the current issue we had in October 2008. We saw this flag in have we got soil in the bags? and I think it prudent to wait for a positive. The last data we had positive ECRI dates back to October 2007.

The NAHB housing index also showed a slight improvement, but again it is just that, and no change of trend. Minor improvements have been several since the beginning of its decline and meant nothing. When we actually see a change in trend will be an important indicator to follow, it usually acts as a leading indicator, especially his last column (green), which are potential buyers. An important point to follow along with the ECRI.





Yes there is a fact that would confirm the current surge in the stock, and is the iTraxx Crossover, current levels of 800 versus the 1,000 that were to be achieved. This index indicates the cost of insuring against bankruptcy a portfolio of bonds from 50 of Europe's largest companies and is a fairly reliable indicator of fear in strong hands. Clearly indicating less fear than in past months, but remains at very high levels.

Cervix Position When Period Is Due

treat the subject of gold in Gold at $ 2000, where we review what happened in the late 70's when gold rose from just over $ 100 to $ 850 in 1980, then fall back and do not exceed $ 500 up 2006, no less than 26 years later.

I will not discuss the consideration of safe haven of gold. It is true that gold is money that can not be created at will by central banks. It is true that if the financial system collapsed, the gold would enjoy their status as safe haven for self-destruction of other currencies. We must also bear in mind that if between the two extreme scenarios of deflation or hyperinflation , eventually succeed the second one, the gold would become excellent protection. It is also true that gold retains value much better than fiat money, since gold is extracted each year no more than 2% of the existing and extracted, estimated at 150,000 tonnes, while fiat money is created at the discretion of the governments. Not discuss these irrefutable facts is the intention of this post.


However, the fact remains that unless the money liquidity, there is virtually no other assets to behave worse in the long term gold .




A look at the chart above makes us realize that, compared to buying gold, there's only one thing less profitable to do with the money, put it in a drawer.

seems obvious that gold is the enemy of bank money, and therefore an enemy of the banks, who would prefer we did not know of its existence in order to "play" with our money banking multiplying at will through the bank multiplier, or placing their great intangible investment products.

However, currently there is a paradox that a large part of investment banks recommend investing in gold, with target prices of $ 1,500 in the case of Merrill Lynch, or $ 2,000 in the case of Citibank . As usual investment banks to buy those that they have too much and want to sell expensive, we will take the recommendations of purchase as a warning. It is still too recent the Goldman Sachs forecast $ 200 for a barrel of oil , when it traded at $ 129 and just before the crash will take price below $ 40 a barrel.

But what is making the final investment?, That they often buy an asset when it is time to sell.

Well in this article and in that other show him:

Marta Domínguez, director Gold Direct, a company founded in Valencia in 2006 by Austrian Michael Berger, said that "the number of customers has increased tenfold in two months. We have about $ 2,000." The average value of purchases has also skyrocketed. "Before, the average investment was about 5,000 to 10,000 euros. It is now between 25,000 and 40,000," he says. This year the company will sell two tonnes of gold, something never seen before. Joaquin

Van den Brule, head of ciodad a company with more than two decades of life, says demand has increased 15-fold in the last month and a half. "We now have customers coming to buy five or ten kilos of blow," he says.

We

investment banks to recommend buying gold when it was supposed that gold is the enemy number one bank, and the particular buying gold as never seen before.

Let's look at the supply of gold. According www.gold.org, demand for gold jewelry was in 2008 of 2,146 tons. Demand this year is experiencing a fall of 44%. Do not forget that this is the main use of gold, and therefore its main consumer. The demand for physical gold investment in 2008 was 766 tons, a slight decrease this year of 8%.

If the demand for jewelry has fallen so far, what has replaced it demand? Well the increasingly popular ETF and hedge funds, with increases of 121% and 305% so far this year compared to 2008. Speculative demand, and as fast as it comes, it falls. We saw the effect that caused the withdrawal of speculative demand on the price of oil.

Will he recover the gold demand for jewelry when you remove the speculative demand? In today's environment of long recession, hard.

On the supply side, new mine production is maintained over 2,000 tons per year (other sources indicate a production of about 2,500 tons per year), while gold has barely increased recycling and involves about 1,400 tons per year (this is not new production, but offer). However, some people think that lately there is growing offer recycled gold, helped by high prices :

The major Swiss Argor-Heraeus refinery said the supply of scrap metal has been " nearly doubled "in the last six months.

The UBS metals strategist John Reade said scrap flows are entering unprecedented levels.

"All I talk refineries are full, some are really rejecting junk, "he added.

Much of that scrap gold sell comes from" grandmother's jewelry "which is quite common in times of crisis. This is the so-called junk old. The new scrap mainly from industrial uses of gold.

What is clear is that hardly can lower the price of gold below the cost of extraction, but it is around $ 300-400, well below current prices.





A curiosity: 50% of gold in the world has been produced since 1960. Put another way: has produced more gold in 1960 than in all of human history until 1960.

the chart below taken from cumulative gold:

Free Full Lenght Bangbros Vedios

Mark to market

When it seemed clear that big banks like Citigroup were only corpses awaiting stock to be nationalized, it appears a communication Pandit (CEO of Citigroup) to their employees, ensuring that your bank is currently making profits. Not only that, but they are having the best quarter since the summer of 2007. The first-quarter earnings would be U.S. $ 8,300 million, before taxes and provisions. Is supposed to be an internal memo. Only assumed, since the intent is clear to the markets, they would drop the action of Citi under a dollar. "An attack on the shorts?

Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, one would expect, and the next day to appear on CNBC the same story: they are making profits. JP Morgan also joined the party of the surprising benefits.

Just four days since the last public aid to these giants, crying and asking, and now, as if by magic, are reaping benefits.

As a curiosity let me say that on March 2, Roberto Hernandez, Citi director, bought 6 million shares at $ 1.25. On March 3, Manuel Medina-Mora, CEO of Citi Latin America and Mexico, purchased 1.5 million shares at $ 1.24. What a coincidence that so few days later the CEO as positive communication with their employees.


Do We Believe?

is clear that they are operating profitably, yes we think so. It is hard to believe considering that the U.S. money is now free, and since the loans are largely fixed rate, interest rates are conducive to their advantage everyday.


But what that about the mark to market?

The mark to market is the obligation of banks each quarter to reflect in their accounts the depreciation of assets based on market price. Cause the dreaded write downs, the real problem of the banks.

Citi has $ 88,900 billion in write downs since the beginning of the crisis. The future benefits depend entirely on the importance of write downs in its results, and these depend on the deterioration of the economy and the market, but also the implementation or otherwise of the mark to market, which is currently fashionable debate.

people are talking these days the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board meets on Monday to discuss the application of mark to market for illiquid assets. It seems unlikely the disappearance of the mark to market, but it is starting to consider the possibility of changing in exceptional periods in which there is no market for these assets. Something that would be very favorable results for U.S. banks, and consequently, for their contributions.

packets are assumed mortgage debt is valued today at below market value "real." But what is its real value? . In bundles of mortgage debt could be happening as in the stock market and the market is not to overreact and do not set fair prices, but simply the market expects a high probability a future situation worse, with more defaults and lower asset prices. It makes little sense for the market to pay for something so far below their real value of course. We assume that markets tend to be efficient (although they are not at all), and certain prices are always displayed buyers. If they are not, there must be something the market discounts.

If a mortgage debt package is valued by the market to zero it is clear that just as a market inefficiency. It is virtually impossible to be worth zero, since even having to liquidate the entire package and with the support of depreciated assets, provided that such assets will be worth something behind. But again same thing, who in these conditions is able to fix your "real" value?, do we have another disaster on the threshold higher than that generated by the rating agencies?

is clear that no set prices in a year whereas its debt arrears double current levels, but it shall strictly according to the current situation. And not considered predictable asset price declines, so that although its current pricing work may be correct, as the economic decline was greater arrive at current market prices or at least close to them, and impaired balance banks would be more gradual. Do not bankrupt today, but every day would be worse. Unless the meantime came the long awaited economic recovery.


What if the bank needs to liquidate these securitization?

Obviously nobody would pay what it says, which could reach insolvency.

Is it intended that the banks can be set by Article 33 of asset prices to keep prices down further and thus further inflating the credit bubble a few years? What foundation would be based banks when this new bubble exploded even more inflated than the present?

If the market goes up and helps me, the market rules. If that says the market does not like us, we break the deck.