Cervix Position When Period Is Due

treat the subject of gold in Gold at $ 2000, where we review what happened in the late 70's when gold rose from just over $ 100 to $ 850 in 1980, then fall back and do not exceed $ 500 up 2006, no less than 26 years later.

I will not discuss the consideration of safe haven of gold. It is true that gold is money that can not be created at will by central banks. It is true that if the financial system collapsed, the gold would enjoy their status as safe haven for self-destruction of other currencies. We must also bear in mind that if between the two extreme scenarios of deflation or hyperinflation , eventually succeed the second one, the gold would become excellent protection. It is also true that gold retains value much better than fiat money, since gold is extracted each year no more than 2% of the existing and extracted, estimated at 150,000 tonnes, while fiat money is created at the discretion of the governments. Not discuss these irrefutable facts is the intention of this post.


However, the fact remains that unless the money liquidity, there is virtually no other assets to behave worse in the long term gold .




A look at the chart above makes us realize that, compared to buying gold, there's only one thing less profitable to do with the money, put it in a drawer.

seems obvious that gold is the enemy of bank money, and therefore an enemy of the banks, who would prefer we did not know of its existence in order to "play" with our money banking multiplying at will through the bank multiplier, or placing their great intangible investment products.

However, currently there is a paradox that a large part of investment banks recommend investing in gold, with target prices of $ 1,500 in the case of Merrill Lynch, or $ 2,000 in the case of Citibank . As usual investment banks to buy those that they have too much and want to sell expensive, we will take the recommendations of purchase as a warning. It is still too recent the Goldman Sachs forecast $ 200 for a barrel of oil , when it traded at $ 129 and just before the crash will take price below $ 40 a barrel.

But what is making the final investment?, That they often buy an asset when it is time to sell.

Well in this article and in that other show him:

Marta Domínguez, director Gold Direct, a company founded in Valencia in 2006 by Austrian Michael Berger, said that "the number of customers has increased tenfold in two months. We have about $ 2,000." The average value of purchases has also skyrocketed. "Before, the average investment was about 5,000 to 10,000 euros. It is now between 25,000 and 40,000," he says. This year the company will sell two tonnes of gold, something never seen before. Joaquin

Van den Brule, head of ciodad a company with more than two decades of life, says demand has increased 15-fold in the last month and a half. "We now have customers coming to buy five or ten kilos of blow," he says.

We

investment banks to recommend buying gold when it was supposed that gold is the enemy number one bank, and the particular buying gold as never seen before.

Let's look at the supply of gold. According www.gold.org, demand for gold jewelry was in 2008 of 2,146 tons. Demand this year is experiencing a fall of 44%. Do not forget that this is the main use of gold, and therefore its main consumer. The demand for physical gold investment in 2008 was 766 tons, a slight decrease this year of 8%.

If the demand for jewelry has fallen so far, what has replaced it demand? Well the increasingly popular ETF and hedge funds, with increases of 121% and 305% so far this year compared to 2008. Speculative demand, and as fast as it comes, it falls. We saw the effect that caused the withdrawal of speculative demand on the price of oil.

Will he recover the gold demand for jewelry when you remove the speculative demand? In today's environment of long recession, hard.

On the supply side, new mine production is maintained over 2,000 tons per year (other sources indicate a production of about 2,500 tons per year), while gold has barely increased recycling and involves about 1,400 tons per year (this is not new production, but offer). However, some people think that lately there is growing offer recycled gold, helped by high prices :

The major Swiss Argor-Heraeus refinery said the supply of scrap metal has been " nearly doubled "in the last six months.

The UBS metals strategist John Reade said scrap flows are entering unprecedented levels.

"All I talk refineries are full, some are really rejecting junk, "he added.

Much of that scrap gold sell comes from" grandmother's jewelry "which is quite common in times of crisis. This is the so-called junk old. The new scrap mainly from industrial uses of gold.

What is clear is that hardly can lower the price of gold below the cost of extraction, but it is around $ 300-400, well below current prices.





A curiosity: 50% of gold in the world has been produced since 1960. Put another way: has produced more gold in 1960 than in all of human history until 1960.

the chart below taken from cumulative gold:

Free Full Lenght Bangbros Vedios

Mark to market

When it seemed clear that big banks like Citigroup were only corpses awaiting stock to be nationalized, it appears a communication Pandit (CEO of Citigroup) to their employees, ensuring that your bank is currently making profits. Not only that, but they are having the best quarter since the summer of 2007. The first-quarter earnings would be U.S. $ 8,300 million, before taxes and provisions. Is supposed to be an internal memo. Only assumed, since the intent is clear to the markets, they would drop the action of Citi under a dollar. "An attack on the shorts?

Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, one would expect, and the next day to appear on CNBC the same story: they are making profits. JP Morgan also joined the party of the surprising benefits.

Just four days since the last public aid to these giants, crying and asking, and now, as if by magic, are reaping benefits.

As a curiosity let me say that on March 2, Roberto Hernandez, Citi director, bought 6 million shares at $ 1.25. On March 3, Manuel Medina-Mora, CEO of Citi Latin America and Mexico, purchased 1.5 million shares at $ 1.24. What a coincidence that so few days later the CEO as positive communication with their employees.


Do We Believe?

is clear that they are operating profitably, yes we think so. It is hard to believe considering that the U.S. money is now free, and since the loans are largely fixed rate, interest rates are conducive to their advantage everyday.


But what that about the mark to market?

The mark to market is the obligation of banks each quarter to reflect in their accounts the depreciation of assets based on market price. Cause the dreaded write downs, the real problem of the banks.

Citi has $ 88,900 billion in write downs since the beginning of the crisis. The future benefits depend entirely on the importance of write downs in its results, and these depend on the deterioration of the economy and the market, but also the implementation or otherwise of the mark to market, which is currently fashionable debate.

people are talking these days the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board meets on Monday to discuss the application of mark to market for illiquid assets. It seems unlikely the disappearance of the mark to market, but it is starting to consider the possibility of changing in exceptional periods in which there is no market for these assets. Something that would be very favorable results for U.S. banks, and consequently, for their contributions.

packets are assumed mortgage debt is valued today at below market value "real." But what is its real value? . In bundles of mortgage debt could be happening as in the stock market and the market is not to overreact and do not set fair prices, but simply the market expects a high probability a future situation worse, with more defaults and lower asset prices. It makes little sense for the market to pay for something so far below their real value of course. We assume that markets tend to be efficient (although they are not at all), and certain prices are always displayed buyers. If they are not, there must be something the market discounts.

If a mortgage debt package is valued by the market to zero it is clear that just as a market inefficiency. It is virtually impossible to be worth zero, since even having to liquidate the entire package and with the support of depreciated assets, provided that such assets will be worth something behind. But again same thing, who in these conditions is able to fix your "real" value?, do we have another disaster on the threshold higher than that generated by the rating agencies?

is clear that no set prices in a year whereas its debt arrears double current levels, but it shall strictly according to the current situation. And not considered predictable asset price declines, so that although its current pricing work may be correct, as the economic decline was greater arrive at current market prices or at least close to them, and impaired balance banks would be more gradual. Do not bankrupt today, but every day would be worse. Unless the meantime came the long awaited economic recovery.


What if the bank needs to liquidate these securitization?

Obviously nobody would pay what it says, which could reach insolvency.

Is it intended that the banks can be set by Article 33 of asset prices to keep prices down further and thus further inflating the credit bubble a few years? What foundation would be based banks when this new bubble exploded even more inflated than the present?

If the market goes up and helps me, the market rules. If that says the market does not like us, we break the deck.