Baltic Dry Index, China try at the entrance "the crash of 1929" how during bearish trends are possible rebounds to more than 50%. Now we are at that point, even more in some indices such as the English Ibex. From those minimum daily we see how loans are returned actions of speculators who chose to bear in minimum position. The rise have been caught with the wrong foot and have to repurchase the shares to curb losses. Closing of short positions that have fed all the way up, but right now we have several days worrying in this regard. It was common a few days ago the return of tens of millions of titles borrowed from Santander almost daily.
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"growth," sustainable? " commented that the materials would be a clear buying opportunity came after economic recovery. We see that raw materials are already dawning, but is reliable recovery economic markets are discounting?. I still think that the authorities have chosen to extinguish the fire using gasoline. Faced with a problem of excessive indebtedness has been chosen as an escape route buried inside a mountain of debt even higher. Never a healthy economic recovery can begin with such levels of indebtedness. We can see a glimmer of recovery, but will be limited and not sustainable. To start a new cycle of consistent growth is a prerequisite deleveraging. Not only is reducing the debt, but because of government intervention, the risk has been transferred from private to public, with the danger that entails. In short: recovery will not be consistent and of smaller proportions and duration of what is currently discounted markets.
The raw materials are already rising accompanying the markets. If the economic recovery is not being so, why raise both the raw materials?, Is not synonymous with the rise in price of an increase in demand?.
it happens that almost all raw materials have corresponding futures markets, initially created to facilitate hedging strategies of the parties involved in business related to a given raw material or commodity. No clutch, today and every day, the Most of the volume transaction is speculative.
The Baltic Dry Index is an index that evaluates the cost of sea transportation of dry cargo. This indicates that no future. It stands to reason that if economic activity is improving in a rush, as we are saying the stock and commodity markets, this index must be accompanied with rises.
see the chart below of the BDI with the price of oil.
see how effectively it did at first, but in recent days, the BDI is showing us that optimism is overdone, and that recovery is not bad. Would this be a warning, because it is not speculative index that shows the reality of the market.
Next we see the same graph the Baltic Dry Index, this time with the S & P 500.
We see in this graph how the BDI rose from January to March while the stock continued to fall, showing a possible sign of recovery showed no bags. As in the previous chart, the recent fall in the BDI as the indexes reached new highs, seems to give a warning overly optimistic about living markets.
Finally, we see another striking fact: Western stock markets to new highs continue aupándose while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong since mid-August brings with sharp falls. What we see in the chart below, represented the S & P 500 in fuchsia, and the Hang Seng in black. Another warning sign that should not be overlooked.
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