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I earn money by trading? Allocation AAII Survey

Can you make money trading? Obviously, it can be.

However, if I have intention to start earning money by trading what I have real chances of success?

always heard that that 90% of traders lose much of their capital within 6 months, but how true is it?

seems more logical view that the percentage of traders winners out of 50% as a price can only go up or down, and therefore, we should have a 50% chance of losing or winning.

October 18 came into effect new regulations for foreign exchange brokers in the U.S.. With this new regulation, among many other changes, the brokers are required to publish the percentage of accounts are in profit each quarter. In this post we found a very revealing chart:





A look at the table is to draw a conclusion: in every quarter, only about one in four customers of either of these brokers wins. The only exception is Oanda clients, with a percentage close to 50%, but the explanation is simple and logical: Oanda paid deposit account balances, so that all accounts that are inactive are automatically winning accounts, thanks to the interest received.

Seeing this we have to forget about the assumption of 50% chance of winning. We see that the reality is that the probability is 25%. But beware, 25% in a single quarter. That is, it seems simple that even a bad trader has a good quarter, but winning over four quarters, or at least win the whole year, it seems so simple. In the extreme case, if all traders earn a quarter and lost the other three, would have the same statistical result and there would be a winning trader only in the whole year. Considering the success of winning a quarter as an independent trader in the event of winning the same trader another quarter (which is not strictly true), we would have the statistical results of 0.25 ^ 4 = 0.0039. That is, the probability that a trader wins in the four quarters of a year would be 0.39%. He said that this is not strictly true because we have to accept that they are not independent events, as they often repeat the winning trader profits are more likely than others, plus you do not need to win every quarter to make profit in the whole year. But we have to accept, in view of these results, what that 90% of traders lose is a fairly accurate result with what has to be reality.

words, it is complicated to be a winning trader. The period, the shorter, more unpredictable, so if the aim is to win is to be operated easily in the medium to long term. Gain from investment is simple: just have to buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy. Buy and sell in fear to euphoria.

also is not the same bet that a price increase or decrease, that investing in a business that is profitable and we also buy cheap. In the first case, if we bet on the upside and the market gives us no reason, we will have to close out the position at a loss. In the second case, each drop will be a new opportunity to buy at the best price. Is difference between speculation and investing. In the long term, value investors are imposed.

It's really hard to fight every day against the noise of the market tried to scratch something. Instead, go for a penalized by the market value but with solid fundamentals is a far less risky bet, if we wait long enough. The patient investor is not paid by anyone. You are not required a monthly result. You can afford to lose if you know you're on the right side. Here come the results. Markets are inefficient in the short term but long term tend to be quite efficient.

Another issue to consider is the physical and psychological cost of trading. Investment required to be informed and take some time to finding good values \u200b\u200band monitoring. Speculation of day trading requires dedication and psychological wear. The trader is under considerable pressure, while the investor may worry about your portfolio and only serve the market sentiment, a few economic indicators and statistics, in search of opportunity, to try to find auspicious time of sale. In fact, if you have some actions that prevent you from sleeping, the only thing you can do with them is sell them.

Nor is it never to do trading, but only do it when we have a clear competitive advantage in the operation, something we have seen and almost everyone else is not. You can make very good trading operations in specific cases, but it is very difficult is to buy and sell every day and win consistently.

Latent Image - Sara St.james

Map of mines and ports

Inspired by a visit I made on Monday at Rio Tinto Mines, Huelva, a town just 60km from the house of my parents, I share a selection of images from Google Maps. I was watching them all separately, but I thought it would be a good idea to put them all on the same page as a personal note (and which I explained to my father during my first weeks in my new job I have spent much much time looking at maps .)

The mine on the banks of the Rio Tinto in 1873 began the adventure of the company I work for. At the beginning of last century was the largest copper producer in the world. Then begin to decline until 1954 English hands again. Rio Tinto Group has now nothing to do with Spain or Huelva.


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The Bingham Canyon mine near Salt Lake City began to produce copper at a commercial scale in 1906. Is the open pit the world's deepest. Since 1989 he has been one of the jewels in the crown of Rio Tinto.


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Something newest Chuquicamata mine in Chile. Today is part of Codelco, the Chilean state-owned company formed after the nationalization of Allende. One of the advantages of being a state enterprise is is open to the public and in 2007 I visited with my family and my in-laws.


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only recently surpassed Minera Escondida 'Chuqui' as the largest copper mine in the world. The history of La Escondida, goes back to 1988, and although the opera BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto owns 30%.


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Continuing the theme of the Chilean desert, I put the map of María Elena Vergara Office where he spent most of his childhood my father. These were some of many nitrate mines in Chile in the nineteenth century, when this industry was more important for the country than copper. Today I think they are the only ones that are producing commercial-scale nitrate in Chile and belong to SQM, better known as Soquimich (from mining chemical socidedad chile). I feel a special interest in Chilean nitrate as fertilizer was actually the product that sparked my interest in the world of commodities back in 2005.


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SQM is also the Chilean Society of lithium, the largest producer of lithium in the world in a rather remote south of the Salar de Atacama. On our trip in 2007 took a detour to reach San Pedro de Atacama and we passed here too.


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More (much more) important to Rio Tinto that copper today is iron (iron ore). The three largest mining companies in the world are by far behind BHP Billiton, Vale (formerly Companhia Vale do Rio Doce) and Rio Tinto. Their common denominator is the iron ore that BHP and Rio produce in Australia and Vale produced in Brazil. Nearly 180 million tons are exported from Port Hedland, northwestern Australia.


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also important that the copper recent corporate history of Rio Tinto has been aluminum. In 2007, at the height of the credit bubble, Rio bought Alcan for U.S. $ 40,000 million, borrowing up to their eyeballs. Today we went out of debt and are the largest producers of aluminum in the world. But the value of the acquisition of Alcan is yet to be demonstrated. Something that would help the Chinese would rather commit to put a price on carbon dioxide, which would lead to Alcan plants in Canada, like the one below, which rely exclusively on hydroelectric power. Do we help the Chinese?


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Rio
My job is to be energy economist. In energy, oil is king, even though Rio Tinto has no assets related to raw material. The image below is Sullom Voe, the loading point of the Brent crude was priced served as a reference to the world nearly thirty years.


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The other benchmark for oil prices is Cushing, Oklahoma. The WTI crude delivered here is the physical basis of the futures market more liquid commodities in the world.


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But the port from where exports more oil around the world is Ras Tanura, in Saudi Arabia.


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And just 100km south in Qatar have the largest export port in the world LNG. Already exporting 77 million tonnes a year.


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gas
And that increasingly competes with coal, which is what I mantiente busiest in Rio Tinto. The reference price of coal more important world has been the API2: a coal of 6,000 kcal per kg delivered in ARA (anywhere between Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp). The picture shows the port of Rotterdam, the world's largest until recently (now Singapore and Shanghai have more traffic). Approximately 30 million tons of coal each year come to Rotterdam, to be transferred to barges to transport them to various points along the river Rhine But what I say, more and more combined cycle plants and renewable energy in Europe and it takes less coal - in fact my brother is now working in one of the few green spaces that are in the Europoort mounting another combined cycle.


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The other coal reference price (API4) has historically been priced at Richard's Bay, South Africa. From this port are exported around 70 million tonnes per year. But in the last two years more and more coal has run out of here into the Indian Ocean, to the detriment of Europe.


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And it suddenly China started to import more and more coal, even though everyone thought they would remain self-sufficient in this raw material referred to (produce half of all coal produced in the world). And when China imports at the port of Newcastle in Australia is doing well. From here, there are 80 million tonnes a year, some of them from Rio Tinto. And Newcastle say they are the largest coal export port in the world ...


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... but the truth is that of Qinhuangdao, in north-east China, leaving 220 million tons of coal a year. Nearly three times more than from Newcastle. What happens is that just going in northern China to the south of the country, they do not count as exports.


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And to finish with coal, two press releases from Rio Tinto this week showing the shift of the industry in Europe and North America, with its mature markets and greater access to natural gas , Asia. In this press release Rio reported that gets rid of all of its assets in Cloud Peak (the third-largest U.S. coal and property three years ago in Rio at 100%). The mines are located in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana.


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And this informed investors that has made a formal takeover offer of Riversdale, the owners of some of the largest untapped coal deposits in the world, in Tete province, Mozambique. A visit to Tete and Beira (the closest port in Mozambique) that organized when I worked in Malawi for a couple of years also played an important role in my decision to try to leave the public sector and work in a mining or agricultural trade. Despite this I have not taken any part in this decision because the only time I deal with non-thermal coal and steel, which is the main use will give the Riversdale coal.


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Annabel Chong World' S Biggest Gangbang Stream

Bernanke's helicopter works ... at least for me

Bernanke's helicopter is broken and now Ron Paul is more likely to be heard in its campaign to scrap. Will be the chairman of the congressional committee overseeing the Federal Reserve. His interview a few days ago on Bloomberg TV worthwhile.

What you say reflects my opinion on the Quantitative Easing, shared in recent posts: (1) Bernanke's money is running in part on the balance sheets of banks, which certainly does not lend to ordinary citizens , (2) something other that comes to the salaries of those people closest financial power - see bonuses to bankers again and the evidence of housing prices in selected districts of global capital. To this add that (3) is being reflected in rising prices of raw materials and exporting inflation to China and India. And while both have barely average household reduced its leverage, which does not bode well.

But I'm positive. I'm in my fourth week of global expert in coal. And no, do not ask me about ZP subsidies to domestic coal because I care very little. I spent three weeks immersed in consumption and production statistics of coal in China, India and Indonesia. The new year holds for visits to these sites, in addition to Australia, where its headquarters are the company that is dedicated to coal and energy more broadly. What fun. I'll tell you, but what is clear is that my poor blog is going to go a bit in the doldrums.

And the thing I'm good thanks to Bernanke. This chart their mid-year results shown as Rio Tinto has been able to reduce debt by entering into the crisis thanks to a company with access to wholesale markets for money (today is the fourth largest capitalization of the London Stock Exchange and is larger than Banco Santander and Telefónica). Unbelievable. If households and states also could have done that maybe the atmosphere in the street would be something different.



And of course the good fortune of Rio Tinto has had a direct impact on the finances of my home, as shown in the chart of my debt. Who would have thought there would be someone who offered a salary increase of 50% to a poor servant of Her Majesty the Queen who had announced a wage freeze for two years?



With all this could be tempted to say I've earned, at the risk, preparing and working hard. As a good Christian also thank God for taking care of me and provide for my family. But deep down I can not help thinking there is something grotesquely wrong in all this, something that is sensed in the interview with Ron Paul. This I have not won. Is that although the Bernanke helicopter is broken for many people who want, for me it worked.