cole my children start the morning. And do not watch if it rains here in London tonight. The summer itself has been finished. I want to start the course optimistic.
Keynesianism But from the depths of Krugman ( "it's all downhill from here" ) to the English right of Roberto Centeno ( "Meanwhile Spain is not broken to continue, you are actually more broken than ever" ) all seem to agree. Economically, this did not leave yet. Fall is the double dip or at least stagnation.
But I found this entry Stephanie Flanders, economics editor of the BBC, referring to the recent publication of the International Monetary Fund study "Default in Today's Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Unlikely and Undesirable." The thesis of the study it appears that most countries have ample fiscal room before having to suspend payments.
The emphasis of Flanders is that right or wrong the IMF, the United Kingdom, largely because of the way in which it has structured its debt with average maturity of more than 13 years, almost double the average for advanced economies, is in a favorable position, at least compared to other countries.
An interesting variable that demonstrates this is the size of public borrowing between debt maturity and budget deficits, which sums up this chart. Between this year and next the UK only has to finance the equivalent of 31.7% of GDP. On the other hand, the U.S. has to finance the equivalent of 50.9% of its GDP and Japan an amazing 104.7%.
And the good news is that the needs of Spain (equivalent to 35.8% of GDP) are below average.
But let's not get carried away. These levels of overall public debt whose only precedent of what happened during the Second World War. And obviously in a different context so it is far from clear that this is sustainable. What says the IMF? Ya. Here's unflattering assessment Gold Angel Martin on the predictive power of the IMF.
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