English Not a few have criticized the lack of foresight of our leaders: do not see perhaps what was coming?, did not realized that he was forming a huge housing bubble ?, were not able to see the excessive indebtedness of the population?, were not aware that the economic model based on cyclical sectors of low productivity was not sustainable?.
And I wonder how with so many data available were not going to come see something we anticipated many of the followers of economic news?
's go back to the year 2003 . Solbes at that time was not part of the government team, but held the post of European Commissioner for Economic Affairs. Although almost no one remembers, the media said then that: "Solbes warns of" great crisis "would come to Spain if rates rise"
European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Pedro Solbes, warns of "great crisis" economic would happen in Spain if interest rates go up, which would have "little impact" due to "high level of indebtedness" .
In an interview with financial daily La Gaceta, Solbes said that "there are several countries with the same problem. These are the states that have had a fall in interest rates very strong, increasing demand, a supply developments also very good and a situation where prices are not always justified "he adds.
" Obviously, the risk of this is that there is a great crisis "Solbes warns, for whom there is no doubt that Spain has benefited from an expansionary monetary policy over the years by falling rates, while there has been an expansion " very strong "private consumption and construction, reference to the housing bubble.
But this pattern of growth, according to Solbes, "has its risks and the other side of the coin will come when policy changes money "because," obviously a rate increase will have much impact due to the high level of indebtedness. "
He already felt that there was real estate bubble, too much debt and danger of serious crisis if rose rates, which at that time were minimal.
funny thing is that since then we have continued to feed the beast of debt, and more and more bloated housing bubble country. And of course, without stopping to think or a minute to replace the unsustainable economic model based on the brick speculative and unpayable debt.
If already said Almunia when asked why not slowed the housing bubble:
" Avui: not prick the housing bubble in time, is an irresponsible government of Aznar and Zapatero?, Did it not through ignorance or because did not vote?
Almunia: Click the housing bubble was as difficult as removing the cups half-holiday. And there was no way to do it. But the responsibility is shared, not just the fault of governments but also companies and citizens who participated in the joy of inflating the bubble, and the monetary authorities and supervisors and regulators of financial markets. We knew that the real estate sector growth in Spain was not sustainable in the medium term and that sooner or later be adjusted in a disorderly manner, but we did not imagine that a financial crisis would accelerate much. "
This link find another interesting article year 2003 . In this case, Miguel Sebastian, who is the subject of the housing bubble. I note the following:
By contrast, economists are beginning to express concern, as they would like to see more investment physical and technological capital, which determines our future revenue generation. The low productivity English economy is a reflection of the shortage of productive capital. Much brick, little chip and screw. [...]
But there are two objections. The first is that prices may fall at some point in the future, causing a "wealth effect" negative. The expectation of such a drop could cause a sale of housing, feeding the cycle counter. The second is that mortgage indebtedness has reached such a level that a drop in these prices could adversely affect the financial system . [...]
In Spain, the Government has shown irritation to hear about the estate bubble, a tic undemocratic reminiscent of the Chinese government denied entry to SARS and could only begin to tackle it with its public recognition. Second, additional stimuli avoid the lawsuit "aid for home purchase ", common in election campaigns.
Yes, yes, I promise you I wrote Miguel Sebastian. I know hard to believe.
Well to start trembling. If the overvaluation of 2003 could affect the financial system, the overvaluation of 2007 ...
I bring also a curiosity, Domain Registration www.crisis.es :
Yes, domain registered by the Presidency of the Government. Yes, in February 2006!.
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