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(of compulsory reading) Bankinter

then I bring the interview to Sergio Marchionne gave a few weeks ago Automotive. Sergio Marchionne is Fiat group CEO and architect of the rescue of it, sound in just four years after its entry in the firm. The interview is before it became public input on Chrysler Fiat, and was published in the letter bag.

not be missed. Interview is essential reading. About

car manufacturers, said in trap and dividend per following:

carmakers. PER Another example of very low today. It is obvious that during recessions greatly reduces the consumption of durable goods. Historically considered a leading indicator of recession, a slump in car sales by 2% as usual is always growth. We see now car sales are falling around 40% compared to last year. More than a fall is a cataclysm. Not to touch either sector based on its low PER, it is very difficult to estimate future profits. not be able to own brands. They are in a process of drastic reduction of activity and costs, in a wait and see.

I leave you with the interview:

P. What is your mood given the current crisis facing the automotive industry?.
R. I'm really pessimistic. What we are seeing is unprecedented. I have 56 years and have never seen anything like it.

P. What is wrong?.
R. There is no one thing that explains the entire problem. I acknowledge and understand parts of the problem, particularly in areas where the system has failed, because we've lived these situations before. But I've never seen the simultaneous failure of many systems at once.

P. How will this crisis to sales in Western Europe in 2009 and 2010?
R. I honestly do not know. Not that I refuse to make a forecast. I have not just a trusted context with which to forecast. The items included to predict the demand in a normal and rational world are no longer present. So I refrain.

P. What does it mean to "abstain"?.
R. I abstain to establish commitments in terms of volume. I really do not know how to make a credible assessment of the next couple of years. Not trying to be alarmist or to painting a dark future. I think we will emerge from this. But I think that traditional and even avant-garde methods for estimating volumes, market shares, effective marketing techniques, brand repositioning, all these things, all these elements, require that at least one or two reliable benchmarks.

P. "As CEO of the Fiat group, what their short-term response to this grim scenario?.
R. I revisited totally what we do in the first part of 2009. We're just going to tread the brakes all the way, use as many temporary regulations as necessary, trim everything down to basics. I'll have a week of production between now and early January.
After that, everything will be dark because I have no idea about demand. No idea. It is like swimming without ever knowing when you can walk because the fund is so unstable that simply can not know when you've achieved.

P. If you have no idea where the bottom of what could happen to this industry within the next 24 months?.
R. We need to all sit down at the table and say, "Look guys, the party is over. Has anyone seen our bluff and not everyone is going to get, arreglémoslo so. " It may be painful. It may be ugly. But if we do the right thing for the industry, let's do it now. Our industry partnerships strategy was a step to get there. But given where demand is and where it goes, is too slow. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but now my instinct is to be truly draconian. For when we're done with this in the next 24 months, in regard to high volume manufacturers, we will end with an American home, a German, a Euro-Japanese, probably with a significant expansion in the U.S. , one in Japan, one in China and other potential European player. (...) I can not continue to work on cars myself. I need a much larger machine to help me. I need a shared machine.

P. How can you move to a "common machine" when it has yet to develop its future products?.
R. I'm throwing the brakes on everything. I'm holding back the development of models that have not already spent 80% or 90%. The Alfa 147 will substitute, will not change. But if you ask me whether they will invest in a new SUV for Alfa independently, the answer is "No!". (...) If we do not think in this industry as an industry Wal-Mart, we will pay the price of thinking that we are so far Luxurious business. The problem with car is that people always thought they were on top of the food chain and, unfortunately, we are all sitting in the background. And now the world we made that clear.

(...) When I made those comments on the six global manufacturers of what was really talking about is there a difference between being Wal-Mart and Neiman Marcus (a highly exclusive distributor). Ferrari may be Neiman Marcus, can Maserati, Porsche can.
probably has another layer of relatively high-class players, but it is limited. And then there are the rest of us, the Wal-Marts of the world.

P. How does low-cost brand in Western Europe in this vision?
R. It's part of our global restructuring. We are Wal-Mart, but we've been living like Neiman Marcus! The low-cost brand is a natural extension of our market coverage.

P. How will this crisis to suppliers?.
R. It will also be painful for them. We have been streamlining the supplier base but you have to do more because we created these incredibly bad habits. We support our suppliers in this process. We have never forced the majority to fix it. We chose the wrong supplier base. In Fiat's most obvious work is done. We have done cleaning. But we must do much more.

(...)

P. Does this mean that banks, after being recapitalized, they are not recovering operations, such as borrowing money to keep the system working?.
R. That's exactly the problem. The banks will continue taking your money. But to reduce their risk exposure have become much more rigid their lending practices. The depositor can feel more secure because the bank is not at risk and the bank is happy because it has reduced its risk. But this triggered a severe credit problems. Banks are going to be incredibly selective in what they fund. They will not feel any obligation to maintain industrial companies service, arguably because they believe their very survival is at stake. But what makes matters worse is that capital markets are also closed. The ability to obtain financing through debt or equity with a distribution process in the broader financial markets, has declined severely, and in some instances is nonexistent.

P. What about the funding of private consumers?.
R. Funding for private consumers is based on your ability to compensate. After all this happened, getting credit is much more difficult. We're starting to mess ourselves in a vicious circle. We are tightening the credit to the point that at the end of the day, we are denying everyone. We are killing demand. If there is demand, I have no reason to be. Whatever they produce is not going to sell.

Sergio Marchionne tells us that nobody can make predictions at this point, since nothing is known about the future, not even the most immediate. When a business is a progression you can make, but when it suddenly breaks, the only thing you can do is adapt to new circumstances as best as possible. And these new circumstances have nothing to do with growth, and of course the benefits increase.

What can we assume that automakers do to adapt? A lower sales seems obvious that after the temporary production halts permanent closures could come from plants. So decide which plants to close before?: Plants in their country of origin?, "Plants located outside their country of origin, or do plants outside their country of origin in emerging markets with labor costs much low growth markets?