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I earn money by trading? Allocation AAII Survey

Can you make money trading? Obviously, it can be.

However, if I have intention to start earning money by trading what I have real chances of success?

always heard that that 90% of traders lose much of their capital within 6 months, but how true is it?

seems more logical view that the percentage of traders winners out of 50% as a price can only go up or down, and therefore, we should have a 50% chance of losing or winning.

October 18 came into effect new regulations for foreign exchange brokers in the U.S.. With this new regulation, among many other changes, the brokers are required to publish the percentage of accounts are in profit each quarter. In this post we found a very revealing chart:





A look at the table is to draw a conclusion: in every quarter, only about one in four customers of either of these brokers wins. The only exception is Oanda clients, with a percentage close to 50%, but the explanation is simple and logical: Oanda paid deposit account balances, so that all accounts that are inactive are automatically winning accounts, thanks to the interest received.

Seeing this we have to forget about the assumption of 50% chance of winning. We see that the reality is that the probability is 25%. But beware, 25% in a single quarter. That is, it seems simple that even a bad trader has a good quarter, but winning over four quarters, or at least win the whole year, it seems so simple. In the extreme case, if all traders earn a quarter and lost the other three, would have the same statistical result and there would be a winning trader only in the whole year. Considering the success of winning a quarter as an independent trader in the event of winning the same trader another quarter (which is not strictly true), we would have the statistical results of 0.25 ^ 4 = 0.0039. That is, the probability that a trader wins in the four quarters of a year would be 0.39%. He said that this is not strictly true because we have to accept that they are not independent events, as they often repeat the winning trader profits are more likely than others, plus you do not need to win every quarter to make profit in the whole year. But we have to accept, in view of these results, what that 90% of traders lose is a fairly accurate result with what has to be reality.

words, it is complicated to be a winning trader. The period, the shorter, more unpredictable, so if the aim is to win is to be operated easily in the medium to long term. Gain from investment is simple: just have to buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy. Buy and sell in fear to euphoria.

also is not the same bet that a price increase or decrease, that investing in a business that is profitable and we also buy cheap. In the first case, if we bet on the upside and the market gives us no reason, we will have to close out the position at a loss. In the second case, each drop will be a new opportunity to buy at the best price. Is difference between speculation and investing. In the long term, value investors are imposed.

It's really hard to fight every day against the noise of the market tried to scratch something. Instead, go for a penalized by the market value but with solid fundamentals is a far less risky bet, if we wait long enough. The patient investor is not paid by anyone. You are not required a monthly result. You can afford to lose if you know you're on the right side. Here come the results. Markets are inefficient in the short term but long term tend to be quite efficient.

Another issue to consider is the physical and psychological cost of trading. Investment required to be informed and take some time to finding good values \u200b\u200band monitoring. Speculation of day trading requires dedication and psychological wear. The trader is under considerable pressure, while the investor may worry about your portfolio and only serve the market sentiment, a few economic indicators and statistics, in search of opportunity, to try to find auspicious time of sale. In fact, if you have some actions that prevent you from sleeping, the only thing you can do with them is sell them.

Nor is it never to do trading, but only do it when we have a clear competitive advantage in the operation, something we have seen and almost everyone else is not. You can make very good trading operations in specific cases, but it is very difficult is to buy and sell every day and win consistently.

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Map of mines and ports

Inspired by a visit I made on Monday at Rio Tinto Mines, Huelva, a town just 60km from the house of my parents, I share a selection of images from Google Maps. I was watching them all separately, but I thought it would be a good idea to put them all on the same page as a personal note (and which I explained to my father during my first weeks in my new job I have spent much much time looking at maps .)

The mine on the banks of the Rio Tinto in 1873 began the adventure of the company I work for. At the beginning of last century was the largest copper producer in the world. Then begin to decline until 1954 English hands again. Rio Tinto Group has now nothing to do with Spain or Huelva.


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The Bingham Canyon mine near Salt Lake City began to produce copper at a commercial scale in 1906. Is the open pit the world's deepest. Since 1989 he has been one of the jewels in the crown of Rio Tinto.


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Something newest Chuquicamata mine in Chile. Today is part of Codelco, the Chilean state-owned company formed after the nationalization of Allende. One of the advantages of being a state enterprise is is open to the public and in 2007 I visited with my family and my in-laws.


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only recently surpassed Minera Escondida 'Chuqui' as the largest copper mine in the world. The history of La Escondida, goes back to 1988, and although the opera BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto owns 30%.


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Continuing the theme of the Chilean desert, I put the map of María Elena Vergara Office where he spent most of his childhood my father. These were some of many nitrate mines in Chile in the nineteenth century, when this industry was more important for the country than copper. Today I think they are the only ones that are producing commercial-scale nitrate in Chile and belong to SQM, better known as Soquimich (from mining chemical socidedad chile). I feel a special interest in Chilean nitrate as fertilizer was actually the product that sparked my interest in the world of commodities back in 2005.


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SQM is also the Chilean Society of lithium, the largest producer of lithium in the world in a rather remote south of the Salar de Atacama. On our trip in 2007 took a detour to reach San Pedro de Atacama and we passed here too.


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More (much more) important to Rio Tinto that copper today is iron (iron ore). The three largest mining companies in the world are by far behind BHP Billiton, Vale (formerly Companhia Vale do Rio Doce) and Rio Tinto. Their common denominator is the iron ore that BHP and Rio produce in Australia and Vale produced in Brazil. Nearly 180 million tons are exported from Port Hedland, northwestern Australia.


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also important that the copper recent corporate history of Rio Tinto has been aluminum. In 2007, at the height of the credit bubble, Rio bought Alcan for U.S. $ 40,000 million, borrowing up to their eyeballs. Today we went out of debt and are the largest producers of aluminum in the world. But the value of the acquisition of Alcan is yet to be demonstrated. Something that would help the Chinese would rather commit to put a price on carbon dioxide, which would lead to Alcan plants in Canada, like the one below, which rely exclusively on hydroelectric power. Do we help the Chinese?


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Rio
My job is to be energy economist. In energy, oil is king, even though Rio Tinto has no assets related to raw material. The image below is Sullom Voe, the loading point of the Brent crude was priced served as a reference to the world nearly thirty years.


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The other benchmark for oil prices is Cushing, Oklahoma. The WTI crude delivered here is the physical basis of the futures market more liquid commodities in the world.


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But the port from where exports more oil around the world is Ras Tanura, in Saudi Arabia.


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And just 100km south in Qatar have the largest export port in the world LNG. Already exporting 77 million tonnes a year.


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gas
And that increasingly competes with coal, which is what I mantiente busiest in Rio Tinto. The reference price of coal more important world has been the API2: a coal of 6,000 kcal per kg delivered in ARA (anywhere between Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp). The picture shows the port of Rotterdam, the world's largest until recently (now Singapore and Shanghai have more traffic). Approximately 30 million tons of coal each year come to Rotterdam, to be transferred to barges to transport them to various points along the river Rhine But what I say, more and more combined cycle plants and renewable energy in Europe and it takes less coal - in fact my brother is now working in one of the few green spaces that are in the Europoort mounting another combined cycle.


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The other coal reference price (API4) has historically been priced at Richard's Bay, South Africa. From this port are exported around 70 million tonnes per year. But in the last two years more and more coal has run out of here into the Indian Ocean, to the detriment of Europe.


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And it suddenly China started to import more and more coal, even though everyone thought they would remain self-sufficient in this raw material referred to (produce half of all coal produced in the world). And when China imports at the port of Newcastle in Australia is doing well. From here, there are 80 million tonnes a year, some of them from Rio Tinto. And Newcastle say they are the largest coal export port in the world ...


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... but the truth is that of Qinhuangdao, in north-east China, leaving 220 million tons of coal a year. Nearly three times more than from Newcastle. What happens is that just going in northern China to the south of the country, they do not count as exports.


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And to finish with coal, two press releases from Rio Tinto this week showing the shift of the industry in Europe and North America, with its mature markets and greater access to natural gas , Asia. In this press release Rio reported that gets rid of all of its assets in Cloud Peak (the third-largest U.S. coal and property three years ago in Rio at 100%). The mines are located in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana.


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And this informed investors that has made a formal takeover offer of Riversdale, the owners of some of the largest untapped coal deposits in the world, in Tete province, Mozambique. A visit to Tete and Beira (the closest port in Mozambique) that organized when I worked in Malawi for a couple of years also played an important role in my decision to try to leave the public sector and work in a mining or agricultural trade. Despite this I have not taken any part in this decision because the only time I deal with non-thermal coal and steel, which is the main use will give the Riversdale coal.


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Bernanke's helicopter works ... at least for me

Bernanke's helicopter is broken and now Ron Paul is more likely to be heard in its campaign to scrap. Will be the chairman of the congressional committee overseeing the Federal Reserve. His interview a few days ago on Bloomberg TV worthwhile.

What you say reflects my opinion on the Quantitative Easing, shared in recent posts: (1) Bernanke's money is running in part on the balance sheets of banks, which certainly does not lend to ordinary citizens , (2) something other that comes to the salaries of those people closest financial power - see bonuses to bankers again and the evidence of housing prices in selected districts of global capital. To this add that (3) is being reflected in rising prices of raw materials and exporting inflation to China and India. And while both have barely average household reduced its leverage, which does not bode well.

But I'm positive. I'm in my fourth week of global expert in coal. And no, do not ask me about ZP subsidies to domestic coal because I care very little. I spent three weeks immersed in consumption and production statistics of coal in China, India and Indonesia. The new year holds for visits to these sites, in addition to Australia, where its headquarters are the company that is dedicated to coal and energy more broadly. What fun. I'll tell you, but what is clear is that my poor blog is going to go a bit in the doldrums.

And the thing I'm good thanks to Bernanke. This chart their mid-year results shown as Rio Tinto has been able to reduce debt by entering into the crisis thanks to a company with access to wholesale markets for money (today is the fourth largest capitalization of the London Stock Exchange and is larger than Banco Santander and Telefónica). Unbelievable. If households and states also could have done that maybe the atmosphere in the street would be something different.



And of course the good fortune of Rio Tinto has had a direct impact on the finances of my home, as shown in the chart of my debt. Who would have thought there would be someone who offered a salary increase of 50% to a poor servant of Her Majesty the Queen who had announced a wage freeze for two years?



With all this could be tempted to say I've earned, at the risk, preparing and working hard. As a good Christian also thank God for taking care of me and provide for my family. But deep down I can not help thinking there is something grotesquely wrong in all this, something that is sensed in the interview with Ron Paul. This I have not won. Is that although the Bernanke helicopter is broken for many people who want, for me it worked.

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Program NADHARI 2010

We present below a list of activities and participants in the conference "NADHARI 2010, A look African" LECTURE

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Saving savings

You all know the theory of contrary opinion applied to the bag. According to this, it is interpreted that when most investors are optimistic, they have already bought equities, so the market has to lose for lack of buyers. Similarly, if the mass of investors are pessimistic, you've probably sold their shares, then a large part of investors buy shares before or after and their prices rise by lack of sellers.

interesting thing is to know at all times when investors are optimistic or pessimistic. The American Association of Individual Investors publishes a survey of market sentiment is very soon. Carpathian even follow a fairly predictable long-term whereby has to buy stock when the average 8-week upward decrease in the level of 29 . You can follow the interview at this link .

Serve this as an introduction to another survey that found most interesting yet. The AAII Allocation Survey is a survey of the same association, but it shows the composition of portfolio investors. When these investors are cautious and increase the weighting of cash in their portfolios, while reducing the stock position is that it is time to buy equities.





As we see, when the equity percentage drops to about 40% and when the cash rate also goes up to around 40%, probably we are facing a market floor, and buying opportunity for long term . This has happened in the two major land market of the last decade.

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Bernanke's helicopter is broken (but not all)

By pursuing the subject (especially since I noticed the previous post if I get into more complicated issues make me just a mess). We have seen that quantitative easing, the monetary expansion by the Fed and the Bank of England seen as an important tool to help overcome the crisis, is not working:

(1) It is becoming as cash in the bank balance;

(2) And although banks have this raised the interest rates they offer to credit applicants and have fallen for savers .

However, some characters if they are getting some of the quantitative easing. The last week has been much talk in the British press salary and bonuses Barclays Capital, where despite the drop in profits is expected that the remuneration should be increased by 17%. And this is not a phenomenon only in banking investment. Robert Peston a few days ago spoke of the difference in executive compensation in publicly traded companies and executives at other companies. The former have seen their compensation grow by 55% last year (!) While the latter have seen their pay fall in real terms.

So it seems to me that the Quantitative Easing is a recipe for political and financial elites translates into improved financial situation at the expense of the middle class. A chart that illustrates this fact is the recovery in house prices in Kensington and Chelsea district of London more expensive compared to, For example, Croydon, a suburban district where people from working class. During the first half of this year prices in K & C reached levels even higher than those of 2007-08, while in Croydon are more than 10% below their highs.

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Raw materials and capital theory and business cycle

Yesterday I was at this conference in sessions focused on the energy sector and shipping. The most interesting was the presentation by Jeffrey Currie, Goldman partner and Head of Commodities Research. Apart from a few facts about gold (for example, he said "you are long gold Either long or Politicians" and he turned around the argument of Daniel Lacalle here to conclude that gold is actually the best "store of value" that exists), which I found very interesting was the explanation of its bullish stance on what raw materials are concerned. Apparently

extractive and agricultural sectors are operating at levels above 90% capacity, compared with levels of 70% in other sectors closer to the consumer. If I understand well, as the Austrian school of economics this is the logical result of the period of artificially low interest rates we have been through. But Currie said another factor: restrictions on political, regulatory and state (eg nationalization of resources) have prevented the necessary investment in these sectors.

In conclusion, it appears that the sector in which to start work on Monday is a good bet for the future.

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Bernanke's helicopter is broken (2)

By pursuing the subject. The chart above shows the annotation where is the money of quantitative easing (ie the bank balance).

Some may seem logical to stay there: the homes and businesses want to deleveraging, and that they will not sue for additional credit. But obviously many if they would like to refinance their debts at more generous terms. And what happens if you try it? For in the UK as shown. Interest medium financial institutions to offer new customers on a personal loan of 10,000 pounds is the highest since 2001. The graph also shows the gap between the rate of interest offered on average a savings account. And the worrying thing is that this situation has not changed for a year.

Conclusion: Ongoing quantitative easing = bank bail-out (or bank bailout continued).

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Bernanke's helicopter ... Political

... is broken. And it frustrates me that even characters who claim to be the left and say what you think Senserrich a good idea (although you will put goosebumps to say.)

Helicopter Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, also never took off. Its 200,000 million pounds (nearly 15% of annual GDP) have fallen as cash in the bank balance, as shown in my drawing. The amount of cash on the balance of the four major UK banks rose by 151,000 million between late 2008 and mid-year. These four banks account for 75% share retail financial market in this country (and if you noticed is 151.000m 200.000m 75%).



But maybe I have not understood the allegory of the helicopter. I had always imagined as a helicopter regándonos everyone equally with cash from the sky. Is that what is meant is that they release the tickets to those who are higher up the income distribution is expected to have a trickle-down effect? How can you agree with this any characters left? Is not this Reagannomics, I asked a colleague? Not really. Reagannomics focused on taking away less money to the rich. QE is give them the money. Ridiculous.

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British and Huerta de Soto

Having said that he would go to the 2010 Hayek Lecture at the London School of Economics of Huerta de Soto was planning to make an assessment. But I will not do. The full transcript of the chat can found in the Cobden Centre .

Steve Baker were there and I suppose Douglas Carswell (although the latter did not see), parliamentarians who are trying to legislate that bank reserves cover 100% of deposits. Daniel Hannan, who publicized the event on her blog and became famous for his 'dressing down' to Gordon Brown in the European Parliament ( over 2.7 million views on YouTube ), did not see him. When I do I saw, and I was surprised he went to John Redwood, the Eurosceptic Conservative MP for excellence challenged John Major for the leadership of his party in 1995 when the latter was still prime minister. His conclusion on Huerta talk:

"I agree with much of the De Soto's analysis of What Had Gone Wrong in the bubble and Credit Crunch. Like him, I Have That Bad arguer Central banking lay at the heart of the crisis . I found it more Difficult to Agree with historical remedies, Which Envisage a Completely Different structure of banks dependent on a currency linked to gold. "

full assessment can be read here . Much more interesting than what I could say on this subject.

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House prices in London

is expensive to live in London. We all know that. I am amazed that a newspaper like the Telegraph warm, even in its blogs section, have a bullshit like that Ian Cowie wrote yesterday. It appears that house prices in London are challenging the falls in the rest of the country. A Mr Cowie seems that everything is fully justified: Gordon Gekko and any self-respecting Arab sheik wants to have some property here.

Only, of course, a lie. According to the indicator mentioned Cowie, housing prices in London were in the last quarter by 19.4% below its level three years ago. The average for the whole country is 'just' 16.8%.

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More about Roosevelt and the Great Depression

I continue in my efforts to defend against unjustified attacks Roosevelt. We, at this rate I do Keynesian (and yes, I realize that you have not analyzed any economic data currently English). Angel gives me a piece of test - in fact would have to find the time to respond point by point, but for now I will simply present this graphic:



The facts are the same as presents Angel in his post (in the first frame and second figure), but instead of giving the figures in billions of dollars I do it in% of GDP. This is quite important in the case of the thirties, due to the deflation of a horse above them. I also extend a little period of time covered by the chart until the end of the 50, because I think that five years after the war just might be a bit atypical.

Some observations:

(1) It is interesting to see how government spending and private investment are "mirror images of each other" (sorry but can not find a way to put it so simply in English).

(2) Where is the encouragement of Roosevelt? I do not see. When it comes to power in 1933 FDR seems that spending public is already over 15% of GDP (an increase of 6% since 1929). With FDR maximum to be achieved by increased spending for the war will be from 16.1% in 1939. As is pointed out Angel is a change in the composition of spending, with a transfer of state and local spending at the federal level, but the net impact on the total seems to be very small.

(3) What do you mean private investment recovers? Passed from a paltry 3% of GDP in 1933 to a healthy 13% in 1937, before the famous relapse 37-38 (which is so well illustrated in the graph of unemployment Angel), and then recovering again to 13% in 1940.

(4) History the uncertainty of both Higgs regime like Rallo and Angel seems like a convincing hypothesis to explain the relapse of 1937-38 but I'm not so sure that can be applied to all the three terms of Roosevelt. And indeed, it seems much more convincing than the explanation of Romer, Krugman and all other band that relapse was caused by fiscal contraction in 1937. What fiscal contraction of 1.7% of GDP caused a drop of 4% and unemployment rose by five percentage points? I do not buy it.

(5) Finally, Angel and Rallo asked about comparisons with other countries (that if Germany, Canada, etc). Maybe I chart comparing some more countries, but in my previous post I chose the comparison with the United Kingdom because it seemed the most relevant. In 1933 the U.S. had lost its position as the richest economy in the world per capita, surpassed not only by the United Kingdom by Switzerland and Denmark. In 1939 he had regained that status once again and no major economy has achieved again.

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A mountain of a molehill?

That's what Stephanie Flanders asks on the Spending Review that is on tenterhooks throughout the country today (especially for public employees - here in the office as the Chancellor's speech begins in 10 minutes is most staff gather around the television director general). And also applies to the issue that is cover all the national newspapers: an alleged gaffe of a minister whose documents were photographed while reading in the ministerial car. The paper says it expects the number of public employees has been reduced by 490,000 people by mid-2015. The problem is:

(1) This figure refers to the projections of the Office for Budget Responsibility July, on which the press has already reported at the time.

(2) In a country with six million public employees this loss public employment simply means that you can probably still replace one in five civil servants who retire or get better jobs.

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The former Spanish colony's richest ... Infant mortality in Africa

... you could have guessed ten years ago that was Mexico, Argentina, Chile or Venezuela with their petrodollars. And the answer had been correct: they all had in 2000 per capita income (in PPP terms) of between 8,000 and 9,000 dollars per person.

But today, according to data from World Bank, Equatorial Guinea, with a per capita income of almost $ 20,000 is in theory among the 30 richest countries in the world. And despite all nearly 15% of children die before reaching five years , a figure which is worse only in 13 countries worldwide. A shame that the international community, and Spain in particular, remains entertaining a character as despicable as Obiang Nguema.

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I missed the planting season and a PhD. But there was a period, especially between 2003 and 2006, during which I thought was a pretty attractive option. Then I went and I spent the few nest egg that we had two years ago to do a masters in energy and finance - as to make a second master was a decision that seemed to have the logic in that moment: if I wanted to jump into the private sector would have to go through business school, right? Anyway, after a year and a half to doubt the wisdom of that investment, it seems that in the end, that is going to cost.

Anyway, back to the doctorate, the fact is that yes I could think of some topics that I would have loved deeply microeconometrics based. One of them is the mysterious decline in infant mortality in Malawi, illustrated in the graph of google that I present below. Between 1992 and 2004 the rate of decline was greater than in any other country south of the Sahara (from 240 per 1,000 live births to 133 - the data does not correspond with the chart, here are ). The case is that it is a mystery because the general opinion of the elite in Malawi is that the first decade of democracy (1994-2004) was a lost decade. It is an opinion that was leaked to official publications, including the assessment World Bank poverty reduction in the country in 2006.



have explored the hypothesis, and on which there is still no quantitative assessment had been that reducing infant mortality has been the result of:

(1) a fall in the poverty caused by sector liberalization snuff (which before 1992 could only cultivate a privileged few to whom the government granted a license);

and (2) the introduction of free primary education in 1994, which marked a dramatic increase in literacy especially among girls.

Why still no evidence of the positive effects of these reforms as simple as a fundamental indicator such as infant mortality? For me it is a reflection of everything that is wrong with the international development sector:

(1) because the message that the liberalization of agricultural markets in Africa could have a beneficial impact not fit unequivocally and with 'post-Washington consensus.

(2) Because the government that carried out much of the reform was very corrupt in his second term (1999-2004) and therefore the international agencies were not interested in acknowledging the successes they might have previously.

(3) For the new president (elected in 2004) was also interested to see the mandates of his predecessor as a resounding failure.

(4) For the national elites will not benefit changes - had to compete with farmers producing more snuff and quality of primary education fell enough - and therefore their perception of that period in its history was and is very negative.

Y (5) because this Development Programme United Nations and other inconsequential little characters could be noted, completely implausible, the success of reducing child mortality.

So there you have it. The Spaniard Random doctoral never was and never will be. Of course, the question is still left there, hoping that a young researcher willing to go against current anime someday.

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Roosevelt "Prolonged the Great Depression?

What better way to start a week with two economists getting better (and younger) than me? In this case Rallo and Angel. The two have been around a while making statements like Roosevelt is "responsible President of the Great Depression was prolonged until shortly after his death." And the truth is that the trial of Angel (the second link) is fine. But the numbers fail.

The truth is that never before or since Roosevelt has grown the American economy as the eight years of FDR's first two terms. 72% or more than 7% per capita over the period. Of course I agree with them that:

(1) FDR took command in 1933, when they probably already had purged much of the bad investments of the system;

and (2) The Second World War is a great stimulus to the U.S. economy from 1939 (by their own military spending and probably also the rest of the world exports and capital flight to USA).

But the fact is that in the absence of a credible counterfactual, even if some think that could have grown without the New Deal, what remains are those numbers that always cling Keynesians. And speculations as those of Robert Higgs on uncertainty regime can help, but will never be entirely convincing.



The graph shows the two largest economies of the moment. In 1933 the U.S. was poorest (per capita) than the UK again (had been well ahead since the first decade of the century). The year 1937 was the last time that the island where the richest live outside the U.S. average.

[This post had been prepared some time, but inspired me to finish reading this magnificent profile of Ron Paul in The Atlantic . I am surprised that Joshua Green, who created quite sympathetic with the Tea Party, write something like this: "Only when Roosevelt Took the dollar off the gold standard and Committed to Deficit Spending, and the Fed ADOPTED Consistently low Interest rates, the economy did finally start to recover. This Validated the argument of the Austrians' intellectual adversaries, Economists like John Maynard Keynes, Rather Than That stand aside, governments mitigates Should Intervene to recessions. "]

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Huerta de Soto, 28 October at the London School of Economics

Albert Since leaving London in August for liberal intellectual stimulation in London has fallen . To compensate, if only a little, it seems that Huerta de Soto has decided to accept the invitation the Institute of Economic Affairs to give the Hayek Lecture at the London School of Economics. The small group of characters who we met through Blog reading Albert and we continue to meet monthly plan to attend mass (actually only five are fixed).

Someone else is coming? Halifax

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Double dip: at least the British housing market has already reached

published its index showing a fall in house prices of 3.6% in September. The truth is that in this case I prefer to see how it has changed over the average price in absolute terms than do the annual growth rate usually show the BBC. In other words, I prefer my chart to yours.

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Over the past fiscal adjustment in the UK and income distribution

The issue of income distribution has caused rivers of ink in the blogosphere over the past two weeks for Todd Henderson, a professor at the University of Chicago who feels poor despite winning more than $ 250,000 year. As you climb the tax burden will intensify the debate on both sides of the Atlantic.

Here, the week has been dominated by the withdrawal of Child Benefit to families where there is a tribute to the taxpayer (old) 40% maximum rate, which applies to all those who earn more than 44,000 pounds annually. The Child Benefit is a payment of 20 pounds a week to get all the families for their first child until the latter reached 16 (or 18 if still studying) and 13 pounds per week for each subsequent child. Total, 1,700 pounds per year, than someone who is taxed at the rate of 40% it is the equivalent of 2,900 pounds in gross salary.

Some observations random:

(1) Amparo Polo says it is "a child receiving aid all families in the country, and now only receive low incomes, reflecting the mantra that this is an attack on Middle England. In fact only 10% of taxpayers earning more than 44,000 pounds and the number of affected families is limited.

(2) The government has estimated that the change will affect 1.2 million families, although some think that this number could grow in 2013, when the measure is applied. It is complicated to explain, but basically it seems that the installment of 40% surely be reduced something in the next two years.

(3) For me at least it seemed entirely predictable, although during the campaign that conservatives were explicitly refused to do so. And in the background does not make much sense to be giving taxpayers families the highest decile distribution of income a public subsidy of this type.

(4) The system is really ridiculous. As Alex Massie question (via Andrew Sullivan ) "If You Were Starting from scratch Would you really take the view That What the Country Needs to do is collect taxes and Then use STI Those taxes to send child-support checks to Every in the family Country, Regardless of need? "The question is rhetorical. Obviously the answer is "clearly not, unless You are Gordon Brown," because that's what Brown did with its complex web of tax credits.

(5) Much has been said about the impact on a hypothetical family with a single taxpayer who earns only a little over 44,000 pounds a year, with two children, and addressing the cost of living in London. The line of defense that conservatives have been prepared to say that the median family income of those affected by the change is from 72,000 pounds a year (that's what Phillip Hammond says Jeremy Paxman here.) But obviously that does not negate the fact that yes, there will be some low income families with a little more that 44,000 pounds a year to whom change is going to be a major sacrifice. The Random Family would be one of them, but thank God the Rio Tinto offer more than adequately compensates for the loss of Benefit.

Sorry no graphic notation - do not think the party compensated links.

Brazilian Waxing For Men Images

Fall 17% " Spanish GDP?

Obviously I'm not at all optimistic with respect to the English economy. But what of the anonymous report is passed. I'm no expert in national accounts (and Gold Angel Martin tells me that maybe I'm wrong in this interpretation), but I seems that differences in the indicators presented in the report can be explained by two facts:

(1) public spending has risen from 60,000 million euros in 2007;

and (2) the current account gap has been closed in nearly 50,000 million euros since 2007.

So with only these data can be reconciled to a drop in private domestic demand by 17% with a total GDP decline of only 4% ... almost.




I also find it curious that this analysis arose in the week mentioned both electricity demand and economic activity indicator (to measure up the strike). And is that electricity demand in Spain fell only 4% in the 18 months between mid 2008 and early 2010 and to my surprise, he has been recovering since the beginning of the year. As the chart shows, the picture is much more positive than in the UK, where demand has fallen nearly 9% since April 2008 and shows no signs of recovery. And of course the good thing about these data is that they are Power Grid, a privately held company less susceptible to manipulation by the government.

Finally, the paradox of the decline in employment in Spain seems to me that is explained in Jonathan Tepper graphics in this program Singulars Els (go to minutes 7). Can be summarized in the words of Jesus in the Gospel of Matthew (13 v. 12): "Anyone who has, more will be given and still have an abundance, but did not have, will be taken away even what he has. "

Melena Velba After The Party

Spain 2010 Argentina 1978

spoke this weekend with an Argentine friend of my brother and told me the funny thing is that when a country goes wrong partner "Economically it is usually good in sports.

I answered that yes, maybe Argentina Spain 2010 = 1978. I seems likely that the economic experience of Argentina during the 80's and 90's is what to expect in Spain in the next twenty years.

So tonight, before finishing the weekend, I began to play with the data from Angus Maddison and have produced this chart. My predictions, with no theoretical basis, economic or statistical, are therefore:

(1) Within 25 years, Spain has the same per capita income now (in 2003 per capita income of Argentina was less $ 8,000 per capita, as in 1978).

(2) Within eight years, Spain will win the World Cup again (Argentina won its second World Cup in Mexico in 1986).

Army Ball What To Wear

= Income distribution ...

... in Spain and the United Kingdom in the chart below. Every time we talk more about this in the context of tax increases. That failure to renew the Bush cuts in the U.S., if the new leader of Labour in the UK (my former minister) supported the indefinite continuation of the new section of the 5th% for those earning over 150,000 pounds annually, which if income tax rises in Spain ...

seems incredible that in a matter of so little interest both people have a clear idea of \u200b\u200bthe basic numbers. The memory tax aministración presents the data for Spain and these pictures of HM Customs and Revenue presents for the United Kingdom.



What has piqued my curiosity is Tertulia Digital Economic Freedom, where Alberto Recarte said yesterday that taxpayers who earn over 120,000 per year (10% of total), contributing 40% from the collection of income tax. Recarte rarely wrong, but here it has. 10% of taxpayers who earn more are those with incomes over 40,500 euros per year and represent more than half of the collection. Those earning more than 120,000 euros are less than 1% of taxpayers, but represent 18% of the collection.

I guess when someone wins as much as Recarte is normal to forget how we won the rest of us and commit these errors.

Silver Strike Bowling

Federal Reserve and economic growth ...

... a historical note. Inspired by the interview with Marc Faber publishing in Gurusblog.

The figure suggests two things:

(1) The creation of central banking in the United States in 1913 is associated with lower economic growth in subsequent years.

(2) also appears to be associated with greater volatility in economic growth.

Everyone can draw their own conclusions.

8tv.pl M Jak Milosc 786

The Fall of the Roman Empire and socialism

The theme of the fall of the Roman Empire yosoyhayek has treated a few times in his blog. Read his posts with a certain skepticism about the claim that the level of economic development in the Roman Empire was higher than in Europe in the late Middle Ages. I guess it's because I have no idea who they are or Rostovtzeff Mommsen.

That skepticism has moderated this weekend. My seven-year-old is preparing a paper for school about the Roman Empire and I've helped produce their first chart in Excel - shows the per capita income in 1990 dollars of Italy and the UK according to data from Angus Maddison The freshly deceased. And to convince my best to show a chart with four Maddison data to quote me a rock I do not know. Two interesting points emerge from the graph:

(1) The per capita income in Italy fell by half between the first year and the year 1,000 AD.

(2) Even at 1,500 the United Kingdom had not reached the level of income of the Roman Empire (although Italy had done so.)



The reasons given Huerta de Soto in this class to the collapse of living in Rome seem very convincing: socialism broke the Roman Empire. I guess I'll finish reading the article in Temmin Market Processes (vol. VI, number 2) that is mentioned in the video.

Masterbation In Ladies

The Spanish stock market falls five places ...

... in one year according to data capitalization of the major global stock markets. The graph shows the stock with more than one trillion (English) dollars of capitalization at the end of last month. Exclude the New York Stock Exchange, because it has a market capitalization of more than three times that of Tokyo and very difficult to observe differences among the rest. Total

that in 12 months the English stock market has fallen from No. 9 to 14. Has been adelantantada by the Bombay Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange of India, the Brazilian stock exchange (Bovespa BMF), the Australian stock exchange and Deutsche Börse.

This figure has arisen because Random Spaniard has finally landed a job in the private sector. In a couple of months I will start working on energy economist for Rio Tinto, and was comparing the size of Rio Tinto with that of other publicly traded companies. Market capitalization is the fifth largest company on the London Stock Exchange (after HSBC, BP, Shell and rival BHP Billiton) and now is greater than the two largest companies in the IBEX 35 (Santander and Telefónica).

to see if next week I write some thoughts about my career change.

Taste Buds Swollen For A Week On Sides Of Tongue

"Double dip? Or are we better than we think?

cole my children start the morning. And do not watch if it rains here in London tonight. The summer itself has been finished. I want to start the course optimistic.

Keynesianism But from the depths of Krugman ( "it's all downhill from here" ) to the English right of Roberto Centeno ( "Meanwhile Spain is not broken to continue, you are actually more broken than ever" ) all seem to agree. Economically, this did not leave yet. Fall is the double dip or at least stagnation.

But I found this entry Stephanie Flanders, economics editor of the BBC, referring to the recent publication of the International Monetary Fund study "Default in Today's Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Unlikely and Undesirable." The thesis of the study it appears that most countries have ample fiscal room before having to suspend payments.

The emphasis of Flanders is that right or wrong the IMF, the United Kingdom, largely because of the way in which it has structured its debt with average maturity of more than 13 years, almost double the average for advanced economies, is in a favorable position, at least compared to other countries.



An interesting variable that demonstrates this is the size of public borrowing between debt maturity and budget deficits, which sums up this chart. Between this year and next the UK only has to finance the equivalent of 31.7% of GDP. On the other hand, the U.S. has to finance the equivalent of 50.9% of its GDP and Japan an amazing 104.7%.

And the good news is that the needs of Spain (equivalent to 35.8% of GDP) are below average.

But let's not get carried away. These levels of overall public debt whose only precedent of what happened during the Second World War. And obviously in a different context so it is far from clear that this is sustainable. What says the IMF? Ya. Here's unflattering assessment Gold Angel Martin on the predictive power of the IMF.

Best Adventure Anime With A Little Romance

Esplugas "vote for Zapatero? [Updated with Graphics]

The Constitutional Court declared the statute almost entirely legal and Albert Esplugas , the great promoter of the vote with feet, back to Barcelona: coincidence?

The truth is that I do not think their vote pedestrian Albert is showing a preference for the policy of Zapatero and the infamous tripartite above measures Cameron and his friends, though he would have preferred a government in this island in the UK Independence Party. And is that upon returning to Albert Barcelona takes its public debt plays as a resident and taxpayer: 9,700 Euros English government debt and 3,400 euros of debt from the Generalitat (the highest per capita of all regions). It is true that here in London it's up to something else, but in Spain the rate of growth of debt is higher and lower per capita income.



So I think Albert, after failure of TC, senses that Catalonia is poised to make the dream of many liberals (or libertarians?): The fiscal disobedience. Can you imagine? Catalunya says that assumes all the powers of taxation, but makes no errors in the English State and repudiating its debt. Suddenly the Catalans get rid of 10,000 euros per head of public debt. Public debt per head of the other inhabitants of the ancient country of Spain (which of course is neither without Catalonia and Spain nor anything) would rise by 1,800 euros at once.



But of course, Taifa other are not dumb and cool them what he has done Catalonia and they also decide to go the same way. Disintegrate the country politically and the English State suspends payments not because it is solvent, even for lack of liquidity. Suspended payments because it has ceased to exist.

anyone grieve over the disappearance of the English? To me, born in Madrid, makes me more sad that Albert was going to London and leave his blog ...

Normal Glucose Levels 5.2

During these days the internet forums are a hive of depositors fearing for their savings. No wonder, when the unpaid insurance Friday we showed a risk of default by Spain of 20%. Indeed, today, following the agreement of European loans to PIIGS still listed Spain with a risk of default of 14%.

First, I must clarify that a country can not fail. You can not break because it is not a company goes bankrupt, default and disappear. A country still exist and function after reneging on a payment, so all you can do is suspend payments to then rearrange their schedule obligations. Something like removed and waiting for a bankrupt company. The country's debt may experience a remission of a percentage, but the country still operating. A few days ago the Greek bond to two years reached a high with a 38% annual interest. It was a great buying opportunity, because although Greece had suspended payments and would have raised a 30% off your debt, yet they made money. Obviously now is much higher, and the interest you pay is much lower. There are other possibilities for a country's debt default, as a postponement of the maturity of the bonds outstanding.


The first option is posed by any saver to protect your money is directly out of the bank and keep it "on the mattress." It seems a logical position, and that the cost of having money outside the bank is just the forgone interest, while keeping the risk assumed within the bank is reportedly the total loss. I really do not know if he has actually taken money from the bank believes its total loss really feasible. I think rather than what is feared is a hypothetical pen. If the yard was just a limitation of provisions in cash and foreign transfers would only be the loss of availability, but not capital. Another hypothesis that is abundant in some forums is that after the hypothetical back yard is the peseta and the devalued without offering the possibility of holding euros. An initial devaluation more than 20% seems excessive, so who actually take the savings in your mattress since 2006 and has been the devaluation "post-yard" in the form of bank interest forgone, that would amount to 4% to 17% .

Who get the money from the bank providing extreme scenarios should therefore consider extreme scenarios. First, there is a risk of fire, theft, rodents, etc. It is true that statistically are 20% lower risk of default risk in Spain, but it is also true that even putting in the worst case and the declaration of a default, it would possibly remove and / or deferral of payments, but in any case "disappear" bank money. It must also take into account client "Bancolchón" that the risk of your mattress is inversely proportional to its discretion. If we have not been mixed and have led the bank a large sum in cash, if the play has told a friend or a relative; Bancolchón danger of fire. And here are worth then claims to Bde.

On with the scenarios: it is Spain, leaving the euro, but German. Our euro is devalued in the bank or outside, only a weaker euro would be accompanied by higher inflation and interest rates also higher, making money outside the banking circuit at top speed would be devalued through inflation.

Has anyone thought about what to do with those paper euros if Spain left the euro? Probably many would actually consider making a trip to Europe and enter it there or change them. If, as we all know, even today, and Greece has banned cash transactions of more than 1,500 €, what would prevent Germany and France to prevent and cash transactions of dubious origin? Each entry should be accompanied by the transaction to which it belongs, and the rest of the paper money could very well serve only to warm his hands. Remember

when we changed our design notes for smaller ones peseta? Something could also make countries also remained on the euro, which the euro would only be Bancolchón colored paper.






The second option that many savers faced is to open an account outside of Spain. To clarify if this means less risk or not, bring the following graph:





If we open that account in a German bank, we see that a total unpaid debt of you would PIIGS German banks to 700,000 million dollars of loss. If we open one French, we see that a total unpaid debt of PIIGS opens to French banks a hole than 912,000 million dollars. Interestingly, in Spain the other PIIGS "only" 150,300 owed millions of dollars in debt, and also in turn owes them U.S. $ 89,400 million. Interestingly too, Spain has 1,300 million dollars Greek public debt, while Germany and France has 45,000 million 75,000 million dollars.







If despite the above we decided to open this regard we note that the Bank of Spain it could request information from European countries on the accounts opened by English citizens. Essential

handled with ease in the language of the country concerned, and of course take into account that for any dispute with the entity, we are forced to resort to the courts of that country. Suppose that one day we enter our online banking as usual and found amazed that our account has disappeared. Would not it be easy, quick and inexpensive to solve a problem on a nearby bench and not in a German? Beware
also
pages Internet that advertise offshore accounts. There are a lot of scammers among so-called intermediaries that facilitate the opening of offshore accounts in tax havens. More than one is going to lose everything because of his own fear.

order of popularity, the following strategy consists of buying fashionable German bonds. Now, with the 2-year German bond to 0.65% and 2.94% 10 years, future losses can say that are almost guaranteed. Monetization of debt will end in the form of inflation, and this in rate hike. The rate hike will bring down the price of old bonds, since the new offer a better rate, which buy now that the German government debt will lose money.

Easier to buy German bonds would buy an investment fund of public debt "safe" countries. In this case we could choose a background of very short-term debt, we do not produce any interest, but at least it would fall in price when interest rates go up. Unfortunately, it's hard to know the actual composition of a mutual fund. Usually the higher positions are posted, but it is in the lower positions where these assets are often concentrated more profitable for the fund, which are often not as solvent as the debt of French and German state we see at the top of your portfolio. It is difficult to know what is actually buying, and find out in time if the composition varies.

We have not mentioned the ultimate haven: gold. I wrote about the gold in gold never drops. I have no interest in buying a piece of yellow metal traded at $ 1,200 knowing that the cost of extraction, a little over $ 400, has barely risen, while gold has increased its price. If so listed at $ 600 could be an option to consider, but not the current price. The

introduced into the stock markets are the clear choice to convert their savings into stocks and shares. It is clear that there actions continue to default or not, with or without a yard, but we must be clear that equity is that, variable, and that the hypothetical 20% devaluation of the peseta hypothetical new, translated into stock market is a bad week , and it has proven far more real than hypothetical.

As these cyber creatures swarm of diverse cultures, there are some who see media like PayPal invulnerable shelter for their savings. There is much to navigate the Internet to find cases of people with money locked by PayPal, the whimsical powerless to impose bureaucracy like the company. Some lost a lot trying to preserve their savings. Decisions have to be taken coldly, not when the fear is the one who decides for us.




Finally, what I do: nothing. Just keep saving distributed among the most creditworthy entities (or less insolvent). If it gets dark black, the bag will quote him. And if so, when the default scenario was a reality and the blood was on the streets, buy shares.